By Alastair Macdonald
Reuters, 21 May 2006
BAGHDAD - Iraq's new national unity government is packed with elected leaders from almost every sectarian, ethnic and political group, but two elements that are notably missing may offer the best clues to its priorities.
One thing it still lacks is ministers for the key security posts, interior and defence; the other is a middle name.
For the first time since U.S. forces overthrew Saddam Hussein, Iraq has an administration that is not "provisional", "interim", "transitional" nor any other epithet to undermine its powers or offer excuses for inaction on issues most pressing for its 26 million people -- restoring security and the economy.
That could radically change the focus of government, as well as its relationship with the U.S. occupying forces. The choice of security ministers this week will give more indications of whether the cabinet itself can overcome its internal divisions.
Since the United States returned Iraq's formal sovereignty, politics has been marked by the sometimes abstract institutional business of organising elections and drafting a constitution.
New Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, in his 34-point policy programme presented to parliament on Saturday, has made clear his priorities are the urgent reversal of a slide to sectarian civil war that accelerated in the power vacuum which followed December's election and, over time, improving public services.
"These two issues take precedence now over the construction of full political institutions," said politics professor Hazim al-Naimi at Baghdad's Mustansiriya University. "Security and services are not detached from that process but urgent need means they now need to be addressed more seriously."
"There are no excuses any more," one Western official in Baghdad said, noting there were nearly four years until the next election. "They have to get on with it and deliver for people."
Some officials say Maliki may try to put off parliamentary reviews of constitutional issues, including the fraught question of regional autonomy, to avoid distractions. However, parliament is obliged to address the issues this year.
SECURITY PRIORITY
His completion of a multiconfessional, multi-ethnic cabinet two days ahead of a constitutional deadline has raised hopes for Maliki's ability to steer a consensual, common line. But many believe it will be the filling of the still vacant security ministry jobs that will provide the best guide to his success.
"Only when we see who is interior minister and defence minister will we really know if this national unity government can work," one senior Iraqi politician said on Sunday.
That filling those jobs is taking so long is a further indication of their critical importance to the entire programme.
The interior ministry is pledged to Maliki's dominant Shi'ite Islamists, defence to the disaffected Sunni minority that dominated under Saddam but has for the most part now tentatively engaged in the U.S.-sponsored political process.
The main groups, including the Kurds, have a veto on both posts and much will be read into whether the ministers appointed in the coming days match the job requirements of competence and a credible claim to hold national above sectarian interests.
The United States effectively demanded the removal of the previous, interim, interior minister, who was accused by Sunnis of condoning Shi'ite militia death squads working with police.
That minister is now at finance and the battle goes on over replacing him. If his team is not to be hamstrung by disputes around the cabinet table, Maliki must choose very carefully.
His own role, engaging the credibility he brings as a former underground Shi'ite militant, will be vital in persuading fellow Shi'ites to give up militias and build a credible police.
His programme also features economic priorities, notably on improving electricity supplies. Diplomats suggest Maliki may act to divert power to sabotage-blighted Baghdad to cool passions in the capital, where a U.S. policy to reverse Saddam's practice and spread supply across the country has not been popular.
OLIVE BRANCH
Along with a predictable promise of "maximum force" against hardline militants -- notably the Sunni Islamists of al Qaeda and Saddam's diehard Baathist followers -- Maliki also talked on Sunday of reaching out to those who renounce violence.
One rapid way to foster popularity among Sunnis may be to free some of the 15,000 inmates of U.S. military jails.
Maliki's programme promises the "immediate release of those detained without a court order". Many Iraqi officials see large numbers of the U.S. "security detainees" as little threat.
Any request for their release would be a test of the new relationship between Iraq and Washington.
U.S. and British officials say they are keen to negotiate treaties to regulate their troops' presence in Iraq before the U.N. resolution governing that expires at the end of the year.
Maliki's programme calls for an "objective timetable" for Iraqi forces to be trained and take over from foreign troops -- in line with U.S. and British hopes of withdrawing from Iraq.
For many Iraqis, the U.S. presence is a distortion that has reinforced sectarian divisions. For others, the Americans are a bulwark against disintegration into a regional war that would drag in their Arab, Iranian and other neighbours.
Britain's envoy warned against expecting too much too soon. "There'll be some teething problems," William Patey said. "They must put the interests of the people above those of parties."
But a U.S. official in Baghdad said this year would determine Iraq's future for years to come. He said: "The next six to eight months will set the stage for this country to succeed. Or not."
Additional reporting by Mariam Karouny and Omar al-Ibadi.
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Citation: Alastair Macdonald. "Gaps in Iraq government offer guide to priorities," Reuters, 21 May 2006.
Original URL: http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/MAC140758.htm
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