22 July 2004

An Oxford Scot in King Dubya's Court

 
An Oxford Scot at King Dubya’s court: Niall Ferguson’s Colossus
by Stephen Howe,  22 July 2004.

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Is America an empire? Should it be? Stephen Howe examines a powerful treatment of this most topical of issues, Niall Ferguson’s Colossus, and views the book in light of the prolific young historian’s ideological, political, and – not least – media journey.
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The opening minutes of the Russell Crowe film Gladiator depict a dramatic confrontation between the armies of imperial Rome and the wild German tribes who resist them. The Germans reject the Roman demand for submission in fairly forthright style – by sending the emissary back to the legions’ lines, still mounted but headless. As the gory figure gallops into view and the barbarians roar defiance, one of Crowe’s legionary sidekicks says simply: “People should know when they’re conquered.”

It’s a scene, a line, and an assertion that could be used as a starting-point for classroom discussion on any and every aspect of the history of empires. “’People should know when they’re conquered’ – discuss, with reference to ancient Rome, medieval Ireland, Victorian Maori or Zulu, 21st century Iraqis…”

In the media, a great deal of current debate about Iraq or Afghanistan pivots around the question: when should people recognise that they have been conquered – or liberated? In academia, a large proportion of recent historical work on past British and other empires focuses on related issues: when did people recognise that they were conquered? How did they react, adapt, cooperate or resist? How did they think about those who had conquered them – and how were their ideas about themselves reshaped by the fact of conquest?

Meanwhile, behind these debates and researches lies a parallel assertion about modern global politics and its antecedents, less often explicitly posed but only a little less central to current debates among analysts, current affairs polemicists or indeed historians: “people should know when they are conquerors.”

This would-be teachers’ aid also carries its associated questions. How should United States – or British – citizens today react to being (or being perceived as) hegemons, imperialists or aggressors? What stories do they tell themselves about their countries’ global roles? How do these relate to their conceptions of national and other identities? How far or in what ways have notions of themselves as “being imperial” entered into, or even constructed, such identities?

Niall Ferguson’s worldview revolves almost entirely around those two assertions. Some people – mostly poor and dark-skinned ones – need to recognise that they are conquered, accept the fact, indeed realise that it’s in their own best interests to be so. And other people, especially Americans, must know and accept that they are conquerors and imperialists, shoulder the accompanying burdens, understand that such a role benefits everyone.
As Ferguson says in the introduction to his latest book, Colossus (2004): “Unlike most of the previous writers who have remarked on this, I have no objection in principle to an American empire. Indeed, a part of my argument is that many parts of the world would benefit from a period of American rule.”

A portrait of the gladiator

At only just over 40 years old, Niall Ferguson has been named as one of Britain’s 100 most important public intellectuals by Prospect magazine, and even more notably, as one of the world's 100 most influential people by Time. After a glittering undergraduate and postgraduate career at Oxford University and several years teaching there, he soon achieved a repertory of prestigious posts worthy of some particularly well-connected medieval bishop.

For a time, he was simultaneously professor of political and financial history in Oxford, professor of economics at New York University, and senior fellow of the Hoover institution at Stanford. New York became his main base at the start of 2003, and in summer 2004 he is taking up a history professorship at Harvard.

Within weeks of arriving in the United States, Ferguson also found himself shuttling to Washington on government invitation, fraternising with policymakers from Colin Powell downwards. His existing profile as a pugnacious reviewer, columnist and TV pundit in London newspapers and on the BBC was rapidly complemented by the appearance of comparable ubiquity in the US news media.

With astonishing speed, Niall Ferguson has become famous, influential – and presumably quite prosperous. It is hard to think of anyone else from the ranks of academic historians who has recently – or perhaps ever – achieved quite this combination of public attention, political weight, and continued scholarly productivity.

What are the sources of Ferguson’s current eminence? Two creditable ones are immediately apparent. First, in contrast to several of his those working in the same field, Ferguson is immensely hardworking, prolific and talented. The high-profile intellectual cheerleaders for American empire – Dinesh D’Souza and Robert Kagan, Martin Kramer and Daniel Pipes, Max Boot and Stanley Kurtz (how did that last preposterous pair walk out of the pages of Evelyn Waugh and Joseph Conrad into the real world?) – are almost all crude, lightweight polemicists. The strand of US foreign-policy thinking that derives from Leo Strauss’s disciples is, among its many failings, comprehensively and even proudly anti-historical in temper.

The really incisive analysts of America’s global role, from David Harvey to Emmanuel Todd, have almost invariably been fierce critics, explicitly and sharply anti-imperialist. And most recent historians of the British and other European empires have tended to offer pretty negative balance-sheets of the past colonial record, with the obvious implication that there are few encouraging lessons to be found there for the US today.

In this intellectual landscape, Ferguson stands out. Nobody could doubt the breadth, or indeed in some fields the depth, of his historical knowledge, the boldness of his thinking, his tough-mindedness. In an arena of debate suffused with empty moralising and pseudo-ethical posturing, he is unashamedly, even ostentatiously, unsentimental.

Second, Ferguson is quite exceptionally productive. By the age of 40, many academic historians are satisfied to have published one substantial book – usually a reworking of their doctoral thesis, on some very narrow topic – and maybe a handful of “satellite” articles. Ferguson already has six books to his name, not counting works he has edited or contributed to. None is a slim pamphlet: indeed one, on the Rothschilds, was so massive that its US edition appeared as two separate volumes.

Ferguson is now apparently preparing at least three more book projects: a study of the second world war, a biography of the banker Seymour Warburg, and an analysis of global demographic trends (about which he has recently published several short articles).

The torrent of words has become more profuse over time and the issues it addresses ever bigger. Ferguson’s first book, Paper and Iron (1995), dealt with a relatively specialist theme: Hamburg businessmen in the early 20th century. Yet even it broached far wider questions: the relations between financial markets and politics, the origins and consequences of the first world war, the political effects of inflation.

This last emphasis, especially, may hint at something enduringly significant for Ferguson’s Weltanschauung – for it so closely echoes British, indeed specifically Thatcherite, obsessions of the 1980s. This era and its associated ideology shaped the young Oxford historian; it continues to resonate for the slightly older transatlantic pundit. Indeed, it is plausible to suggest that Ferguson imagines himself playing an intellectual role vis-à-vis the Bush White House comparable to Margaret Thatcher’s in relation to the Ronald Reagan administration.

Niall Ferguson’s public, ideological persona, now assiduously cultivated on both sides of the Atlantic, offers in this light another answer to the question asked above about the sources of his current eminence. It is that Ferguson repetitively pushes a few big, bold, simple, and intellectually extremely dubious ideas; and that they are ideas which many people, including some immensely powerful people, want to hear.

Ferguson’s claims flatter some giant egos, reinforce some vulnerable self-images, confirm some pervasive prejudices. It is tempting, if a little mean-spirited, to see in his developing career path an echo of others which his own writing on British imperialism repeatedly highlights: those of the numerous gifted Scots who beat a track to the centre of an empire’s power, and flourished as its loyal servants.

A trail of blood, tears – and money

In 1998, Niall Ferguson published two enormous books in rapid succession: The World’s Banker (US title, The House of Rothschild), and The Pity of War. The former is still seen by many as his best, a view endorsed in an interview by Ferguson himself. It is based on extensive archival research, in contrast to his later work; but it also anticipates the latter in the several bold and wide-ranging claims that emerge from the mass of detail. Ferguson’s narrative of the 18th-century development of an international bond market, with the Rothschild dynasty as its leading players, contains an important part of the origins of globalisation, of European colonial expansion, even of the defeat of Napoleon.

The Pity of War involved less detailed research than The World’s Banker and was less lavishly praised by fellow scholars – but it made a bigger public splash and sold far better. It established the pattern for his more recent (and even more attention-grabbing) work by offering a sweeping reinterpretation of a very familiar, much-debated topic: the origins of the first world war.

Here, Ferguson emphasised British statesmen’s mistakes and misconceptions, especially about Germany. Had they been wiser, they might well have decided to stand aside from the conflict. 1914 would then have witnessed a limited central European war rather than a global one. Germany would have won it. There would have been no Russian revolution, no Adolf Hitler, and the British empire might have lasted far longer.
As all this suggests, Ferguson was developing a strong taste for “what if…?” speculation – what academics rather ponderously call “counterfactuals” and Ferguson more trendily retitled “virtual history”. His own chapter in the book he edited on the subject proposes “The Kaiser’s European Union” as the likely outcome of British neutrality in the 1914-18 war.

The Pity of War contained far more than such hypotheses. Ferguson utilised his impressively wide reading to present a mass of material on the financing of the war. This was where his expertise was manifest and where, specialists thought, his conclusions were strongest. But here too, he was acquiring a penchant for the scholarly equivalent of the soundbite: for example, his startling conclusion that it cost the Germans $11,000 to kill an allied soldier, while the Allies had to spend $36,000 for every German fatality.

The book, though, focused on blood and tears as much as on cash. Its passages on the misery of soldiering, the sufferings of the rank and file, brought in a dimension of “history from below” – a pathos, a quality of empathy, which neither Ferguson’s previous nor his subsequent writings have included. Indeed one of the most palpable, if not disturbing aspects of his current ideas about Iraq is the loss of this very quality.

The Pity of War was vulnerable to criticism: not least for overestimating Britain’s role and saying surprisingly little about that of France. A kind of “retrospective unilateralism” can be discerned, an augury of his later ideas about 21st-century American policy options. Some thought his neglect of France stemmed from a stronger force than oversight: a kind of disdain. Certainly, by the time of Colossus (2004), Ferguson’s view of French foreign policy had curdled into sweeping hostility.

A nexus of markets, politics – and force

Niall Ferguson’s next work in this breathless succession was The Cash Nexus: money and power in the modern world, 1700–2000 (2001). In it, another facet of the Ferguson philosophy came fully into focus. As we have seen, he had been closely interested in international financial markets since his very earliest writings – and confessed to the abiding impact Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations made on him when he read it at the age of 11.

It would not, perhaps, be unfair to call Ferguson a “neo-Smithian”, in that his attention to the economic forces shaping world politics (though naturally he distances himself from marxisant economic determinism) centres almost entirely on finance and trade, and takes strikingly little notice of industrial, extractive or agricultural production, or indeed of labour. This has important, damaging implications for his view of world power today. Yet it also, paradoxically, lies behind one of the main strengths of his subsequent book on the British empire.

Empire: how Britain made the modern world (2003) – this, British, subtitle was intriguingly different from the American: the rise and demise of the British world order and the lessons for global power – puts the power of money, of markets and financial systems, at the heart of the picture. Imperial historians have too rarely done this in the past few decades – though Peter Cain and A.G. Hopkins had done so in their monumental British Imperialism 1688-2000, a far more original and carefully argued book than Ferguson’s, and very oddly not credited in the latter.

Since the 1980s, and under the influence of Edward Said’s Orientalism, studies of empire tended overwhelmingly to abandon economics – often politics too – and see colonialism in almost entirely cultural terms. Ferguson returned the economic balance-sheets of empire to the centre of debate. But he did so in conjunction with another, less welcome resuscitation of an old argument, a cruder and less enlightening one: simply, was the British empire a “bad thing”, as most post-colonial observers tended to argue or assume, or a good one?

Ferguson is famous, or notorious, for his forceful assertions that the British empire, and the model of liberal empire of which it was the foremost exemplar, was good. It naturally, though still more contentiously, follows that something on similar lines, run by the United States, would be desirable in the 21st century too.

Empire, published soon after 9/11 and the subsequent US invasion of Afghanistan, was a production – as a book, and still more as an accompanying TV series (which Ferguson scripted, presented, and oversaw as executive producer) – too slight to bear the full weight of that argument. With its coffee-table format, copious pictures but no footnotes, and with its attempt to encapsulate several centuries’ global history in a few sweeping theses, it is considerably more susceptible to specialist criticism than was The Pity of War. (For a more careful argument that British colonialism was an economically progressive force, one has to turn to older, less fashionable historians of empire like D.K. Fieldhouse).

As with The Pity of War, probably Empire’s most compelling theme was to do with the relationship between markets, political institutions, and force. Much early English, then British expansion was an informal, private-enterprise affair. But in place after place of the non-European world, British governments realised – often reluctantly – that to safeguard their investments and commercial interests, they would have to seize physical control.

It is not at all an original argument: the motifs of the reluctant imperialist and of the flag following trade (rather than vice versa) are long familiar in imperial historiography. But what followed from all this, in Ferguson’s version, was overwhelmingly beneficial to the conquered as well as to the British merchants, investors or settlers in whose interests London had initially intervened.

The process “enhanced global welfare…no organisation in history has done more to promote the free movement of goods, capital and labour than the British empire in the 19th and early 20th centuries. And no organisation has done more to impose western norms of law, order and governance around the world.”

Part of the problem here, to which we’ll return, lies in Ferguson’s presumption that “imposing western norms” is self-evidently desirable, and should be recognised as such by the colonised. But even leaving such contentious value-judgments aside, his is a drastically simplified, homogenised and above all rose-tinted view of the British imperial record.

The benefits he hails – free trade, the rule of law, private property rights, honest and efficient administration, investment in infrastructure, the introduction of new cash crops and expanded markets for old ones – were very unevenly spread and applied. Some carried a devastating downside: free-trade policies and a shift from subsistence agriculture to cash-crop production for export brought famine in their wake, especially in India.
Ferguson’s response to negative evaluations of Britain’s record in India is, in brief: insofar as Britain failed, it did so by not being vigorously interventionist enough. This is both strikingly feeble and inconsistent with much else that he says. Colonial-era investment in infrastructure, let alone in health, education or welfare, was in many places almost non-existent – except at the very end of British rule, and even then, it stemmed not from some inherent logic of the colonial mission, but from anti-colonialist pressures at home and abroad. And, an argument long familiar to imperial historians but which Ferguson almost wholly ignores, it helped hasten empire’s end. An interventionist colonialism was its own gravedigger.
An inner contradiction is equally apparent in Ferguson’s treatment of colonial atrocities, abuses of power, even massacres. Ferguson doesn’t ignore them, but his allusions to them often sound very much like “covering himself”, and in making them seem far more exceptional than they were. The empathy with victims that marked The Pity of War is quite absent here.

Indeed, his entire picture of empire as liberal, modernising and uncorrupt is, again, strikingly one-sided. There was far more archaism, autocracy and indeed corruption than he ever admits. The notion of Britain’s liberal empire entirely overlooks the institutionalised coercion of colonial rule, the mobilisation of custom, the invention of tradition, the centrality of race to colonial projects – and thus the inevitability of the colonised seeing alien rule as systematic humiliation.

British colonial rule did not, as Ferguson suggests, systematically spread the “rule of law” among its subjects, or extend to them the legal rights enjoyed by Britain’s own inhabitants. On the contrary, while white settlers in the empire usually had such rights as well as gaining substantial economic benefits from the imperial connection, most “natives” remained subject to quite separate and far more punitive legal codes. Moreover, in an irony that Ferguson seems to miss, a great deal of colonial expansion and conquest itself breached even the embryonic structures of international law obtaining at the time, let alone those elaborated since 1945.

The other side of Ferguson’s finessing of empire’s agents and impacts is his indiscriminate tendency to view all opponents of empire past and present, from the Mahdi in 1880s Sudan to Osama bin Laden, as benighted cultural conservatives or obscurantists. This perception dominates the last pages of Empire, and is expressed yet more starkly in the closing moments of the accompanying TV series.

The astonishing slide from 19th-century anti-colonial resisters to contemporary Islamists already suggests the present-day payoff of Ferguson’s historical picture. But there’s another, still more crucial link between past and present – and between Ferguson’s 2003 book on British power and his ideas in his latest tome, the new Colossus (2004) on America’s empire.

A landscape of test of power, engagement – and will

Niall Ferguson argues that the British empire collapsed, above all, because of a failure of will to sustain it. It was in its way an admirable failure, for Britain chose quite consciously to sacrifice empire in the struggle against other, far worse imperialisms: those of Germany and Japan in the second world war.

This interpretation places far more exclusive weight on 1939-45 than most historians of decolonisation would do. It is flattering to British self-images to see them willingly forfeiting their global power in order to defeat fascist tyranny. But it ignores both all the evidence of growing British weakness before 1939, and all the efforts to sustain superpower status after 1945. Well into the 1950s and beyond, most British policymakers retained global, great-power ambitions if not assumptions, and a belief that empire (even if rebranded as “Commonwealth”) was crucial to these.

As Empire hit the bookshops and TV screens in late 2001, Ferguson began amplifying the intended lessons for contemporary America. He wasn’t the only pundit to begin speaking, in approving terms, of a new American empire. But his was perhaps the most intellectually powerful, historically informed, and (in terms of the range of media outlets) promiscuous voice.
The neo-conservative hawks in and around the Bush administration drew heavily on his ideas to make their case for the war in Iraq, and for a wider, less shamefaced US global interventionism. And while some conservative commentators have responded to setbacks in Iraq by seeking excuses or even admitting miscalculation, Ferguson has become an even louder advocate of foreign engagement. As the end of Empire already signalled, it’s all about will.

America’s rulers, the argument goes, should have recognised much more quickly, fully and explicitly that their country’s role in the world was and must be imperial. By drawing the right kind of lessons from history, especially Britain’s imperial history, they should have understood that a massive and long-term commitment is involved.

This is not only a military commitment – though that is obviously necessary, and must include (despite Vietnam) a willingness to accept casualties and far deeper resources of military personnel. (In one of the most bizarre passages of Colossus, Ferguson points to America’s vast prison population as a potential resource for a larger army!).

It also involves a commitment to extended colonial occupation of conquered countries, with many thousands of civilian administrators, all imbued with the skills, ethos and public spirit which marked Britain’s imperial elites. Like Britain’s proconsuls and district commissioners they must, Ferguson writes, create the “strong institutional foundations of law and order” necessary for democracy and free markets to flourish. “The proper role of an imperial America is to establish these institutions where they are lacking, if necessary ... by military force.”

Nobody else will or can perform this role. The United Nations is a hopeless case. The European Union is too weak, too diverse, too inward-looking; in a rather ugly neologism, he dubs the EU an “impire” rather than a potential “empire”. Europeans, moreover, don’t work hard enough, are too keen on welfarism and economic planning.

In this, Ferguson is fortifying his consistently negative assessment of the European Union’s prospects. It is not a coolly detached perspective, for his anti-Europeanism goes at least as far back as his student days (one of his first publications was for the Europhobic Bruges Group). But Ferguson does introduce a new element: in a wildly speculative if not distasteful demographic argument, he argues that Europe has too many old people and too fast-growing a Muslim population to enable it to act rightly on a world stage.

At the same time, he fears that the US may mirror Europe’s infirmity: isolationism, short-termism, unwillingness to incur costs in money or lives, misplaced moral qualms. All may undermine the necessary will to power.
Ferguson is too clever to resort entirely to a simplistic, monocausal argument from collective psychology. He notes more structural impediments to the United States’s becoming the empire it should be. He explores its economic weaknesses: the country’s external indebtedness and domestic budget deficit, even though – true to his Thatcherite past – he attributes the latter far too much to welfare and social security spending. But it’s the external debt burden, and the potentially destabilising consequences this has for the world financial system as a whole, which he justly sees as the more important constraint.

As with his earlier books, so in Colossus, it’s as an economic historian that Ferguson is most persuasive. Across great stretches of Colossus, indeed, he writes like a very competent but rather tendentious economic journalist: summarising data on investment, productivity, or working hours.
But even on this front there are some highly contestable claims. Ferguson dismisses any notion that US actions in the Middle East have anything to do with controlling oil reserves, because, he says, America is itself “oil-rich” and “long ago renounced” any such aim. Yet US oil production has been declining since the early 1970s, while consumption rises – and Ferguson of all people should hardly need reminding that prices matter.

Still, the tone in these sections is very different from that found in his more sermonising moods, whether within the book itself or in recent newspaper pieces. In the latter, the crude psychologism and the obsession with will return in full force. In the New York Times in April 2004 – the month of the US’s devastating siege of Fallujah – Ferguson scorned the “squeamish” calls for restraint in Iraq. “Putting this rebellion down”, he wrote, “will require severity” and “ruthlessness”. His big worry was that such condign ruthlessness would not be forthcoming.

More recently, Ferguson is reportedly scornful of those upset at reports and images of torture by US forces at Abu Ghraib prison near Baghdad. What happened, he suggests, was no worse than the initiatory “hazing” routine in many army camps and even student fraternities. Such claims naturally infuriate not only liberals, but also conservatives anxious to uphold the honour of the US military.

Such provocations display Ferguson at his most unattractive, suggesting the flippant amorality of the perennial Oxbridge undergraduate entranced by his own cleverness. It is also a reminder that Ferguson has written a great deal that is very bad indeed.

A world of corruption, terrorism – and disdain

Like Empire, the British and American editions of Colossus have different subtitles. In Britain, it’s the rise and fall of the American empire; in America, it’s the price of America’s empire. The implications of the two are drastically divergent: an empire already falling, or just one for which there’s a price to be paid? The whole book threatens to fall into this Atlantic-wide chasm of inconsistency.

Colossus opens with a brief, preliminary essay in defining “empire” and related terms, which might have been more effective if it hadn’t ignored many previous (and far more detailed) historians’ attempts to do the same thing. The first half of the book is then devoted to a survey of American expansionism across the centuries.

Ferguson is surely right to argue that, by many if not most definitions, the US has been “imperial” right from the start – first through continental enlargement and expropriation, then overseas expansion in the Caribbean and the Pacific. He traces American empire through the 20th century, into the cold war era and beyond, and points out that although the main mode of expansion was not direct physical conquest, this did not make it any less “imperial” – although there were in fact more examples of formal US colonialism than are usually recalled.

In all this, as one would expect, Ferguson is lucid, factually pretty reliable, fairly dispassionate. Sometimes, indeed, the attempt at balance results in almost risible blandness. “It is perhaps too harsh to dismiss American rule over the Philippines as a failure. But it was certainly far from the success that Franklin Roosevelt later made out.” This is what is technically described as refusing to have your cake or eat it. The historical sketches also offer some significant hostages to fortune. In relation to Vietnam, Ferguson notes: “Within a short time, the reality – that imperialists are seldom loved – began to sink in.” The implications of that almost throwaway remark for the remainder of the book’s entire argument are severe.

More dispiriting, though, is that Ferguson – usually so bursting with new ideas, both good and bad – has nothing whatever original to say here. He revisits very thoroughly trodden ground, and does so largely without even acknowledging those who have preceded him: Colossus’ bibliography omits almost all the most important prior writing on US empire.

As Ferguson’s narrative moves towards the present, the tone becomes less bland, more edgy. And he begins more explicitly to mount his case for empire. Decolonisation after 1945 was, he suggests (in an argument, once again, with a myriad unacknowledged precursors), mostly bad news for the former colonies. “(The) experiment with political independence, especially in Africa, has been a disaster for most poor countries ... Might it not be that for some countries some form of imperial governance…might be better than full independence, not just for a few months or years but for decades?”
Actually it sounds as though he is referring mainly to sub-Saharan Africa, and over-generalising even there, but he repeatedly suggests that his claims hold true for the whole post-colonial world. Its problem, he urges, “is simply misgovernment: corrupt and lawless dictators whose conduct makes economic development impossible.” The assertion is, of course, far too simple. And he soon drops the pretence of openness, affirming far more categorically that “in most cases, (poor countries’) only hope for the future would seem to be intervention by a foreign power capable of constructing the basic institutional foundations that are indispensable for economic development.”

If Africa, and by slightly slippery extension the whole ex-colonial world, comes off pretty badly in Ferguson’s account, the Middle East fares still worse. Dismissing (rightly) the notion of a “clash of civilisations” between Islam and the west, he suggests instead that the region as a whole has a “distinctive civilisation of clashes, a dysfunctional culture in which rival religions and natural resources supply much of the content of political conflict, but the form is the really distinctive thing. That form is of course terrorism.” So much is absurdly, disgracefully wrong here – and in the chapter on the Middle East which those words herald – that one hardly knows where to begin. From the idea of a whole vast region possessing a single “dysfunctional culture” to the bizarre claim that terrorism is “distinctive” to the Middle East, all this is not only analytically useless, but simply insulting. Its inadequacy has much to do with what Ferguson has read about the area and its history – and, more to the point, what he hasn’t read. He cites a handful of the most conservative (and most pro-Israeli) American and British historians of the region, like Bernard Lewis or Elie Kedourie. The works he mentions are invariably either very old, or (as with Lewis’s recent productions) almost as superficial and suffused with disdain for Arabs and Muslims as Ferguson’s own. If he has ever looked at anything substantial on the history of Iraq, or of any other country in the region, there is no sign of it. Neither in Colossus nor in Empire is a single Arab author acknowledged.

A pattern of reading, selection – and evasion

This is merely an extreme instance of a much broader, deeply disconcerting pattern. Niall Ferguson is immensely widely read in a great range of fields. But that reading is almost entirely confined to the boundaries of the North Atlantic world. In most of his books, he drops in literary allusions. But these are to a tediously predictable and narrow spectrum of writers.
On American empire, he quotes or alludes to Moby Dick, to Graham Greene’s The Quiet American, and his old, regularly recycled favourites Rudyard Kipling and John Buchan. It seems not to have occurred to him that any Iraqi poet or novelist – or, say, Abdelrahman Munif’s Saudi historical novels The Trench and Cities of Salt, in which American influence and the control of oil are central themes – might offer something relevant.
In Colossus, Ferguson refers to a couple of Indian-born economists, but in relation to contemporary global economic trends, not to India’s own history or even the Raj. The only works on the latter by Indians which Ferguson cites are an outline economic history by Tirthankar Roy, and a brief, polemical essay by Tapan Raychaudhuri – and he doesn’t really consider the latter’s damning indictment of Britain’s record in India. Indian historians are somewhat better represented among the sources for Empire; but even its extensive bibliographies include only one African writer, Joseph Inikori, whose work on the economics of slavery is so important that it could not be ignored even if one wanted to. That, though is one more African than is cited in Colossus.

The lack of generosity – indeed, too often, total disregard – towards other writers which Ferguson displays might seem important only to academics obsessed with the small print of the history of ideas. But on another level, it should matter to anyone who cares about giving credit where it’s due, about not forgetting who first laboured in some particular vineyard. And where there’s a clear pattern, as there seems to be with Ferguson, with certain kinds of writers and writing being ignored, then something more serious still is going on.

As Timothy Burke – himself a major historian of southern Africa – has complained vis-à-vis Ferguson:
“It's fine to argue that the British Empire really was about civilising and liberation after all, if you like – there's an interesting, subtle case to be made along those lines if one is careful and precise enough to control the terms and ground rules under which it is made. But doing so as a scholar, even for a larger public audience, ought to entail a certain amount of intellectual respect for an absolutely gigantic body of careful, historically precise scholarship that argues otherwise both in terms of specifics and generalities. Ferguson simply ignores a generation of historians outright, as if they never existed.”

This is not, then, a petty bibliographical complaint. The fact is that Ferguson systematically bypasses or blanks out every source which analyses or presents the perspectives of the colonised. There thus emerges a consistent pattern of distortion or one-sidedness: a pattern which tends to reinforce the prejudices of those he seeks to influence.

Much of the impact Ferguson’s writing has had on public debate, especially in the US, stems from his being perceived as an expert historian whose arguments about policy are based on specialist knowledge. Ferguson is indeed a proficient historian with a great deal of accumulated learning at his disposal. But his authority does not extend to the histories of any part of the non-European world. When he makes claims about these, they must be evaluated as the arguments of a talented, opinionated amateur, not a scholar.

It is surely symptomatic that Colossus alludes to Robert Cooper, the British diplomat who shares Ferguson’s affection for “liberal empire”, but not to Fred Cooper, the acute analyst of why “welfare colonialism” failed in Africa. That Cooper – who, as it happens, is also an NYU colleague of Ferguson – does what none of Ferguson’s work since The Pity of War has attempted: giving attention and empathy to the ordinary people who suffered under empire, namely African slaves, peasants and dockworkers.

That whole side of the story is missing from everything Ferguson writes about empire, past and present, British and American. Niall might benefit here from perusing the work of another namesake, James Ferguson’s grim and moving books on the failure of “development” and the costs of globalisation in Zambia and Lesotho.

A moment of ambition, resistance – and judgment

Perhaps, even, Niall Ferguson could listen to Saddam Hussein. At his committal hearing before an Iraqi court in early July 2004, the former dictator invoked Kuwaiti abuse of and disrespect for Iraqi women. To most listeners, this seemed absurd and despicable as a justification for invasion. But Saddam is neither a fool, nor entirely out of touch with the gut-level feelings of “his” people. His choice of argument tells us something important and disturbing about how powerful feelings of humiliation and revenge can be. They are part of the immensely complex story of how, or whether, “people know when they’re conquered.”

Niall Ferguson, obsessed with telling Americans to know that they’re conquerors and act accordingly, cannot hear any part of that other story. He seems to think it is enough to point out that those who resist imperial power often (he would say, typically) do so in the name of deeply unattractive, inward- or backward-looking ideologies. Anti-colonial resistance may even rest on utopian, irrational and superstitious beliefs. That is true enough, but noting the fact seems for him to be a way merely of evading the near-ubiquity of such opposition and resistance, of refusing to think about it.

Ferguson’s panoramic, intensely value-laden claims on the essential nature of imperialism depend heavily, necessarily on equally holistic perceptions of the alternatives to empire. For him, as we’ve seen, these would involve despotism, endemic disorder and economic decay for most of the world’s poorer countries. For the world system as a whole, he adds, the likely alternative to US empire would be dangerous instability.

Post-1945 critics of empire, in stark contrast, inhabited a time and a worldview in which the alternatives seemed not only readily apparent and attractive, but to be on the road to global victory. Anti-colonial nationalism, post-colonial “nation-building”, new global solidarities of the formerly oppressed – all linked to varying but almost always significant degrees with some form of socialist project – combined to produce an optimistic, progressivist, even triumphalist metahistorical narrative of what Egyptian economist Samir Amin dubbed the “Bandung era”.

That moment, clearly, is not ours, and those alternatives to empire are not ones that command widespread faith or even hope, at least in the forms that they did during the moment of decolonisation between the 1940s and the 1970s. Nor is the notion of a global, “purified” Islamic umma as their successor attractive or convincing even to most believing Muslims – let alone to the mostly secular intellectuals who write about, and against, empires today. Niall Ferguson’s writing on empire past and present has at least the negative merit of challenging his critics to think harder about what kind of world they would have instead. It is a challenge which is still to be met.

Citation:
Stephen Howe, "An Oxford Scot at King Dubya’s court: Niall Ferguson’s Colossus,  OpenDemocracy.net, 22 July 2004.
http://www.opendemocracy.net/debates/article-3-77-2021.jsp (22 July 2004).

 

13 July 2004

Army Takes Its War Effort to Task: Report says U.S. forces prevailed in Iraq despite deep supply shortages and bad intelligence.

David Zucchino

Los Angeles Times
July 3, 2004



FT. LEAVENWORTH, Kan. _ American soldiers who defeated the Iraqi regime 15 months ago received virtually none of the critical spare parts they needed to keep their tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles running. They ran chronically short of food, water and ammunition. Their radios often failed them. Their medics had to forage for medical supplies, artillery gunners had to cannibalize parts from captured Iraqi guns and intelligence units provided little useful information about the enemy.



These revelations come not from embedded reporters or congressional committees but from the Army itself. In the first internal assessment of the war in Iraq, an exhaustive Army study has concluded that American forces prevailed despite supply and logistical failures, poor intelligence, communication breakdowns and futile attempts at psychological warfare.



The 542-page study, declassified last month, praises commanders and soldiers for displaying resourcefulness and resiliency under trying conditions, and for taking advantage of superior firepower, training and technology.



But the report also describes a broken supply system that left crucial spare parts and lubricants on warehouse shelves in Kuwait while tankers outside Baghdad ripped parts from broken-down tanks and raided Iraqi supplies of oil and lubricants.



"No one had anything good to say about parts delivery, from the privates at the front to the generals" at the U.S. command center in Kuwait, the study's authors concluded after conducting 2,300 interviews and studying 119,000 documents.



Among other highlights, the report revealed that the toppling of the Saddam Hussein statue in Baghdad before cheering Iraqis was the brainchild of a U.S. Marine colonel, with help from a psychological operations unit. The report also credited a U.S. Army colonel with shortening the war by "weeks, if not months" with his dramatic "thunder run" into Baghdad.



Portions of an early draft of the report were described by the New York Times in an article in February. The study has since been revised and refined, but the overall conclusions in the final, unclassified report have not changed significantly.



Within the Third Infantry Division (Mechanized), which spearheaded the U.S. assault on Baghdad, "literally every maneuver battalion commander asserted that he could not have continued offensive operations for another two weeks without some spare parts," the study said.



The study, titled "On Point" and aimed at "lessons learned," is at odds with the public perception of a technologically superior invasion force that easily drove Hussein from power. In fact, as the authors point out in their battle-by-battle narrative, there were many precarious moments when U.S. units were critically short of fuel and ammunition, with little understanding of the forces arrayed against them.



The report, by the Operation Iraqi Freedom Study Group at Ft. Leavenworth, called ammunition resupply "problematic" and said the medical supply system "failed to work." Engineers desperate for explosives foraged for Iraqi explosives and tore apart mine-clearing charges to use the explosives to blow up captured Iraqi equipment.



Many soldiers plunged into combat not knowing whether they had enough food or water to sustain themselves in punishing heat and blinding sandstorms. "Stocks of food barely met demand," the study said. "There were times when the supply system was incapable of providing sufficient MREs for the soldiers fighting Iraqi forces."



Military intelligence provided little useful information about the deployment or intentions of Iraqi forces, the study concluded. A Third Infantry tank commander whose company was attacked by Iraqi fighters hidden in an elaborate bunker and trench system in Baghdad on April 8 told The Times that he later learned from a French journalist that newspapers had reported details of the bunker network. Yet his own intelligence officers had told him nothing.



Most significantly, military planners did not anticipate the effectiveness or ferocity of paramilitary forces that disrupted supply columns and mounted suicide charges against 70-ton Abrams tanks. Some of those same forces, using tactics refined during the invasion, are part of the current insurgency.



The study, which covers events in Kuwait and Iraq until President Bush declared major combat operations over on May 1, 2003, does not address the insurgency, which has killed far more Americans than were killed during the so-called combat phase. Nor does the study discuss the Pentagon's failure to anticipate or control the looting and chaos following the collapse of the Iraqi regime in April 2003.



But the report does say that the military's "running start" _ the strategy of launching the invasion before all support units had arrived _ made it difficult for commanders to quickly adjust from major combat to postwar challenges. Because combat units outraced supply and support units, combat commanders were caught unprepared when Hussein's regime collapsed after three weeks.



"Local commanders were torn between their fights and providing resources _ soldiers, time and logistics _ to meet the civilian needs," the report said. "Partially due to the scarce resources as a result of the running start, there simply was not enough to do both missions."



The report does not address the Bush administration's stated reasons for the invasion _ Iraq's alleged weapons of mass destruction, purported operational links between Baghdad and Al Qaeda, and atrocities committed under Hussein's dictatorship. Instead, the study critiques the Army's combat performance with an eye toward future wars.



The principal authors _ retired Col. Gregory Fontenot, Lt. Col. E.J. Degen and Lt. Col. David Tohn _ warned that Iraqi forces could have created significant problems if they had attacked relatively undefended U.S. units staging in Kuwait in the winter of 2002-03. Those units arrived without significant firepower or reinforcements and were vulnerable to a surprise attack.



The authors also said Iraqis could have extended the battle for Baghdad for weeks if they had destroyed or blocked approaches to the capital, or had forced American troops to fight a drawn-out battle in dense urban areas. (Former Republican Guard commanders interviewed by The Times in Baghdad said Hussein left the highways to Baghdad open because he thought his own forces would need them once they blocked the American invasion south of the capital.)



In an interview Friday, Fontenot said the Army excelled at "joint operations," integrating infantry, armor, artillery and air power to great effect during the war. "Arguably, the integration of joint warfare reached a level we had not seen at least since the Korean War," he said.



He also praised the effective use of Special Forces, the successful "pre-positioning" of vast quantities of materiel in the Middle East, and the quality of Army training. Fontenot, a tank battalion commander during the first Gulf War, said officers and men at the tactical level were better prepared last year than 13 years ago.



"I thought I was a pretty good tank commander, but the quality of these battalions is far better than we were," he said. "I was really impressed by the quality of the tactical leadership."



Fontenot said the narrative study, ordered by former Army Chief of Staff Gen. Eric K. Shinseki, was not intended as the "seminal work" on the war. Rather, he said, "it's a first look."



The study credits a relatively junior commander _ Col. David Perkins of the Second Brigade of the Third Infantry Division _ with shortening the war with a bold armored strike into the heart of Baghdad on April 7. Perkins' "thunder run" surprised Baghdad's defenders with its speed and firepower, collapsing the regime from within before Iraqi forces could draw the Americans into a protracted urban war.



The authors said Perkins "made the single decision that arguably shortened the siege by weeks, if not months."



The Pentagon's plan for Baghdad had envisioned a series of attacks to slowly chip away at the regime. But the authors said Perkins' decision to suddenly revise the plan under fire and stay in downtown Baghdad was a prime example of flexibility and innovation by both the Pentagon brass and commanders in the field.



They "rapidly adapted and fought the enemy they found rather than the one they planned on," the study said.



U.S. forces prevailed despite seriously underestimating paramilitary forces, especially Saddam Fedayeen, Baath Party militiamen, al Quds local militiamen and Muslim jihadists from Syria, Jordan and other Middle Eastern countries, the study said. Those fighters harassed U.S. supply columns and nearly overran Col. Perkins' forces along Highway 8 south of Baghdad on April 7.



"The intelligence and operations communities had never anticipated how ferocious, tenacious and fanatical they would be," the authors said. By dressing in civilian clothes and firing from civilian neighborhoods, paramilitaries were able to "hide with some success from the incredible array of technical intelligence" available to U.S. forces.



Efforts by psychological operations units to persuade Iraqi forces to surrender largely failed, the study concluded.



Despite success in minimizing damage to oil fields, the psychological units "produced much less than expected and perhaps less than claimed," the authors said. Some leaflets baffled Iraqi forces, while others were outdated, forcing units to resort to loudspeaker broadcasts, the report said.



Poor U.S. intelligence efforts were compounded by ground commanders' decisions _ because of the dangers involved _ not to send scouts and other reconnaissance troops ahead to report on enemy positions.



In addition, long-range surveillance units flying in lightly equipped helicopters "did not produce great effect for the investment of talent and the risk to those involved," the report said.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Citation:

David Zucchino. "Army Takes Its War Effort to Task," Los Angeles Times, 03 July 2004. Original URL: www.latimes.com/la-na-lessons3jul03,1,3087956. story?coll=la-home-headlines

As a Vote Nears, Taliban Fight On

Victoria Burnett

Boston Globe
July 11, 2004

KABUL, Afghanistan -- After US-led forces began pounding Afghanistan with bombs in October 2001, the Taliban regime collapsed in less than six weeks.

But almost three years later, the coalition that dispatched the regime continues to battle its remnants, who are waging a violent campaign to disrupt elections in October that would mark an important step in Afghanistan's transition to democracy.

Almost daily, militants whom Afghan and US officials identify as Taliban or allies of the renegade former prime minister, Gulbuddin
Hekmat yar, attack remote police or government posts, plant mines on roads used by nongovernmental organizations or election workers, and ambush convoys of relief workers or troops in the south.

Afghan and US officials and analysts point to three main factors in the Taliban's continued ability to carry out such attacks:

A US-led military strategy that focused narrowly on catching prominent Taliban and Al Qaeda figures, and that pits a largely conventional army against an elusive guerrilla force.

A lack of reach by the Afghan government in isolated areas where the militants are active.

Continued support from areas across the border in Pakistan.

''It was not our plan to invest ourselves in nation-building," Carl Conetta, director of the Project for Defense Alternatives, a think tank
based in Cambridge, said of the US military's role in Afghanistan. ''Our general strategy was never to exercise complete control over the country."

In an effort to reverse a tide of violence that has killed hundreds across southern Afghanistan since early last year, the US-led
coalition has expanded from about 11,500 at the end of 2003 to about 20,000, of which 17,000 are US forces, including at least 2,000 Marines.

The coalition includes 4,000 special forces soldiers from different countries, according to Colonel Walter Herd, outgoing head of special forces in Afghanistan.

The coalition has shifted its focus from tactical to ''stability" operations, said Lieutenant Colonel Tucker Mansager, a coalition
spokesman. It is deploying small units of fighters in remote areas for weeks at a time, rather than identifying targets, attacking
them, and then pulling back to bases, he said.

''Before, we were never anywhere long enough," Mansager said in a recent interview in Kabul. ''A lot of it is about killing terrorists,
but a lot of it is building up the confidence of the people."

To support this new emphasis on stability, the coalition has significantly beefed up its chain of civilian-military units, called
Provincial Reconstruction Teams, across the south. It has raised the total from four at the end of last year to 16 as of last week. It has put all forces in a given area -- be they conventional Army and Marine units, civil affairs or special forces -- under control of a
single commander. The strategy is called ''area ownership."

''We've poured more people in, and we have people spread about doing reconstruction work. This resembles typical counterinsurgency strategy, which the Marines are historically good at," Conetta said.

But as the coalition has shifted tactics, so have the Taliban. After taking heavy losses in pitched battles, militants now tend to operate in groups of five to 30 rather than mustering large numbers, a leading Afghan security official said on condition of anonymity.

The change was evident after fierce clashes in Dai Chopan, in Zabul Province, in August 2003. That battle involved hundreds of suspected Taliban, of whom dozens were reported killed.

The violence has hindered election preparations. The first direct presidential vote will take place on Oct. 9, officials announced
Friday. But a parliamentary election, to have been held simultaneously, was put off until the spring.

In the past two weeks, authorities have accused militants with ties to the Taliban of two deadly attacks on women election workers in the eastern province of Nangahar. One woman was killed on Thursday and another was wounded when a mine exploded under a car carrying workers in Nangahar's Khogyani district.

On June 26, a bomb on a bus carrying the election workers in Nangahar's capital, Jalalabad, killed three women. The driver, who
hopped off just before the blast and was arrested, is suspected of links to the Taliban, said Faizanulhaq, spokesman for the Nangahar provincial governor's office, who like many Afghans goes by one name.

In the deadliest attack on prospective voters, gunmen abducted and killed as many as 16 Afghan men from buses traveling through the central province of Oruzgan on June 25, according to Haji Obaidullah, chief of Khas Oruzgan district. The gunmen, whom senior Afghan security officials say were identified as supporters of the ousted Taliban regime, allegedly shot the men because they were carrying voter registration cards.

The Taliban and members of Hizb-i-Islami, or Islamic Party, the movement Hekmatyar once headed, continue to get support and shelter in Pakistan, Afghan and US officials say.

Recent offensives by the Pakistani army in the tribal areas that border Afghanistan to the southeast did not send a flurry of targets
fleeing into Afghanistan. But they did cause a decline in cross-border incursions, Mansager said.

''There's no doubt that the [Pakistani] operation has had an effect," Zalmay Khalilzad, the US ambassador to Kabul, told reporters
recently. ''It has dealt with part of the problem, but it hasn't done more than that."

Afghan officials say they have credible intelligence to indicate top Taliban officials are passing in and out of Pakistan. Pakistan has
yet to hand over any members of a wanted list that Afghanistan provided more a year ago, they say.

The list includes such leaders as Mullah Dadullah, a one-legged commander who, Afghan officials say, runs the Taliban's southern
operations; Mullah Obaidullah, the former Taliban defense minister; and Mullah Brader, a senior commander who is reported to work
alongside Obaidullah in the south.

Afghan officials interviewed in northern Kunduz Province, including General Daud, who commands Ministry of Defense forces there and in three other provinces, and Kunduz Governor Mohammad Omar, said last week they had drawn a connection between gunmen who killed 11 Chinese road workers in Kunduz last month and an explosion near a military base in the provincial capital
that killed four.

The attacks, for which authorities have detained at least 15 suspects, were organized by Hizb-i-Islami commanders, they said. The money for the bombing was traced via Kabul's unofficial exchange market back to Hizb-i-Islami supporters in Pakistan.

Pakistani officials have stressed their resolve to root out militants, including remnants of the Taliban. Pakistan supported and recognized the regime until September 2001, when President Pervez Musharraf reversed the policy under US pressure.

An army official, Major General Shaukat Sultan, said the operations had ''made a real difference."

Afghan and US officials concede that Pakistan is not the Taliban's only refuge. Many of the areas where Afghan and coalition forces
encounter resistance are far from the Pakistani border.

''We think many of those forces have been inside Afghanistan," Mansager said, referring to fighters who battled coalition forces in
Dai Chopan in June. The coalition said it had killed 80 of them.

Central government presence is scarce in the provinces, and where the government leaves a vacuum, the Taliban have stepped in. In an interview last week, the senior Afghan official expressed frustration at not knowing the whereabouts of Taliban leaders.

For example, Afghan officials had intelligence indicating that Akhtar Mohammed Usmani, a former Taliban commander of Kandahar, and Rais Abdul Wahid, who is believed to have sheltered the Taliban leader, Mullah Omar, from coalition forces after the Taliban were forced from Kabul, are living in northern Helmand Province and financing their operations through opium, he said.

''What do we have at our disposal to cover all these regions? What is the pay scale of our police? What is the pace of
reconstruction?" he asked. The government of President Hamid Karzai still relies almost entirely on foreign funding for its budget, and struggles to pay civil servants and security forces, whose lower ranks earn about $30 per month.

Many Afghans, especially in isolated areas, say they lack basic services such as water, clinics, and schools. ''Where we are not
present, the Taliban can operate," the security official said.

In the meantime, authorities continue to try to woo nonmilitant Taliban supporters in the hope of isolating about 1,100 to 1,300 who
the coalition says are militants.

''Who is the Taliban?" Nick Downie, a former British soldier and head of Anso, a security organization that offers advice to the aid community, asked rhetorically.

''Who could be the Taliban? Whoever decides to pick up a gun because they don't see a viable alternative."

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Citation:

Victoria Burnett. "As a Vote Nears, Taliban Fight On," Boston Globe, 11 July 2004. Original URL: http://www.boston.com/news/world/middleeast/articles/2004/07/11/as_a_vote_nears_taliban_fight_on/

12 July 2004

Key Revisions Were Made to CIA Document

Mark Mazzetti

Los Angeles Times, 10 July 2004


WASHINGTON - In a classified National Intelligence Estimate prepared before the Iraq (news - web sites) war, the CIA (news - web sites) hedged its judgments about Saddam Hussein (news - web sites) and weapons of mass destruction, pointing up the limits of its knowledge.

But in the unclassified version of the NIE - the so-called white paper cited by the Bush administration in making its case for war - those carefully qualified conclusions were turned into blunt assertions of fact, according to the Senate Intelligence Committee's report on prewar intelligence.


The repeated elimination of qualifying language and dissenting assessments of some of the government's most knowledgeable experts gave the public an inaccurate impression of what the U.S. intelligence community believed about the threat Hussein posed to the United States, the committee said.


Dedicating a section of its 511-page report to discrepancies between the two versions of the crucial October 2002 NIE, the panel laid out numerous instances in which the unclassified version omitted key dissenting opinions about Iraqi weapons capabilities, overstated U.S. knowledge about Iraq's alleged stockpiles of weapons and, in one case, inserted threatening language into the public document that was not contained in the classified version.


"The intelligence community's elimination of the caveats from the unclassified white paper misrepresented their judgments to the public, which did not have access to the classified National Intelligence Estimate containing the more carefully worded assessments," the Senate panel's report concluded.


"The fact that the NIE changed so dramatically from its classified to its unclassified form and broke all in one direction, toward a more dangerous scenario … I think was highly significant," the committee's vice chairman, Sen. John D. "Jay" Rockefeller IV (D-W.Va.), said Friday.


NIEs commonly take months to prepare, but the Iraq report and its unclassified version were compiled in a matter of weeks, the panel said.


As the Bush administration ratcheted up its case for war in September 2002, senators on the Intelligence Committee wrote to the director of central intelligence, George J. Tenet, requesting an NIE about Iraq's weapons programs and any connections to Al Qaeda. With Congress set to vote on the war resolution the next month, intelligence officials rushed to produce the estimate.


But the Senate committee's sharpest criticism of the unclassified document focused not on changes made in haste but on the systematic alteration of the classified version.


For example, the panel cited changes made in the section of the NIE dealing with chemical weapons:


"Although we have little specific information on Iraq's CW stockpile," the classified NIE read, "Saddam Hussein probably has stocked at least 100 metric tons" of such poisons.


In the unclassified version of the report, the phrase "although we have little specific information" was deleted. Instead, the public report said, "Saddam probably has stocked a few hundred metric tons of CW agents."


The Senate report also noted one instance in which a dissenting view was left out of the unclassified version.


In that example, the classified NIE stated that Iraq was developing unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs, "probably intended to deliver biological warfare agents."


But in a footnote, the U.S. Air Force's director for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance said he did not agree.


By eliminating that footnote from the unclassified version, the panel said, the public NIE "is missing the fact that [the] … agency with primary responsibility for technological analysis on UAV programs did not agree with the assessment."


During a nationally televised speech in October 2002, President Bush (news - web sites) cited the threat of Iraqi drone aircraft being used for terrorist attacks against the United States. Secretary of State Colin L. Powell also discussed the UAVs in his speech to the United Nations (news - web sites) on Feb. 5, 2003.


The committee's report describes not just sins of omission, but of addition.

The classified NIE stated, for instance, that "Iraq has some lethal and incapacitating BW [biological weapons] agents and is capable of quickly producing … a variety of such agents, including anthrax, for delivery by bombs, missiles, aerial sprayers and covert operatives."

In the unclassified version, the words "potentially against the U.S. homeland" are inserted at the end of the statement.

During a briefing before the report was released, one committee aide said the Senate panel had asked Tenet and Stu Cohen - who, as acting chairman of the National Intelligence Council, oversaw production of the NIE - who was responsible for inserting those words into the unclassified document.

"They did not know and could not explain," said the aide, speaking on condition of anonymity.

A similar degree of mystery surrounds the larger question of exactly how the classified NIE morphed into its unclassified version.

According to the committee report, the intelligence community began preparing an unclassified white paper on Iraq's banned weapons in May 2002, at the request of the National Security Council.

Months later, as the administration began to make its public case for war, Congress requested an official NIE. Officials at the National Intelligence Council decided to merge the white paper with declassified elements of the NIE to produce the official unclassified version.

Yet committee staffers said Friday that, after a year of investigating, they were still trying to get to the bottom of how the key differences between the classified and unclassified versions came about.

One such difference, the committee reported, is that the classified version presented intelligence findings as assessments - usually beginning with the words "we assess that" - whereas the white paper omitted those words and stated the assessments as facts.

"We assess that Baghdad has begun renewed production of mustard, sarin, GF [cyclosarin] and VX," the classified NIE read, according to the Senate report.

The unclassified white paper read, "Baghdad has begun renewed production of chemical warfare agents, probably including mustard, sarin, cyclosarin and VX."

According to the intelligence committee report, staffers asked intelligence officials why words like "we judge" and "we assess" were removed during the declassification process.

They were told that, because officials believed the white paper would be made public as representing the view of the entire U.S. government, not simply an intelligence community product, it was more appropriate to take references to "we" out of the document. This was done, committee staffers were told, "purely for stylistic reasons."

--------------------

Citation:

Mark Mazzetti, "Key Revisions Were Made to CIA Document," Los Angeles Times, 10 July 2004. Original URL:http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=2026&u=/latimests/20040710/ts_latimes/keyrevisionsweremadetociadocument&printer=

01 July 2004

Comparing Combat Experiences - Afghanistan and Iraq



1 in 6 Iraq Veterans Is Found to Suffer Stress-Related Disorder
by Anahad O'Connor

1 July 2004. About one in six soldiers returning from the war in Iraq shows signs of post-traumatic stress disorder or other emotional difficulties, researchers are reporting today.

Lower levels of psychiatric problems were found among troops who served in Afghanistan.

The study, published today in The New England Journal of Medicine, is the first to examine the mental health of troops returning from Iraq.

The researchers surveyed more than 6,000 soldiers in the months before and after service in Iraq or Afghanistan. Almost 17 percent of those who fought in Iraq reported symptoms of major depression, severe anxiety or post-traumatic stress disorder, compared with about 11 percent of the troops who served in Afghanistan.

The rates were slightly higher than those found among soldiers in the 1991 Persian Gulf war, and lower than the rates in Vietnam veterans. But mental health studies of soldiers in those earlier conflicts were carried out years — in the case of Vietnam, decades — after the troops returned home. The new study examined soldiers before deployment and within three to four months after they returned.

"In the Vietnam era, post-traumatic stress disorder hadn't even been recognized as a disorder," said Dr. Charles W. Hoge, lead author of the study and chief of the department of psychiatry and behavioral sciences at the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research. "It wasn't until 10 or 15 years later that many of the experiences the soldiers were having were recognized as P.T.S.D. Because of those lessons, we're now trying to take a more proactive approach to mental health."

He and other experts said that every war imposed unique pressures. Soldiers in Iraq have more contact with the enemy and more exposure to terrorist attacks than did troops in the earlier Iraq war.

National Guardsmen and Reserve troops are playing a larger role. At the same time, soldiers in Iraq have more public support than did the veterans returning from Vietnam.

The finding that rates of psychiatric problems among the soldiers returning from Iraq were higher in the new study than those among troops who were in Afghanistan reflects their greater exposure to combat, the researchers said. More than 90 percent of the Iraq troops reported having been shot at, while among those returning from Afghanistan, 66 percent said they had been attacked.

In each group, those who had the largest number of symptoms were also the ones least likely to seek help, the study found. More than half the soldiers who met the criteria for a psychiatric disorder reported that they had not sought help out of fear that they would be stigmatized or their careers would be harmed.

Whether the percentage of troops experiencing post-traumatic stress will change over time is unclear, but most experts say that the figures are likely to increase.

Dr. Robert Rosenheck, a professor of psychiatry and public health at Yale and director of the Department of Veterans Affairs Northeast Program Evaluation Center, said it was possible that some soldiers were experiencing symptoms but had not yet recognized them.

In the late 1990's, a long-term study of veterans of the Persian Gulf war found that the prevalence of post-traumatic symptoms more than doubled between an initial survey and a second one two years later. Based on those findings, and the continued fighting in Iraq, the percentage of returning soldiers with post-traumatic symptoms could still go up, said Dr. Matthew J. Friedman, director of the Department of Veterans Affairs at the National Center for Post-traumatic Stress Disorder.

"We know from research on soldiers deployed to Somalia in the early 90's that as the nature of the mission changed from peacekeeping to the capture of warlords, the prevalence of P.T.S.D. went up," he said. "The current study was conducted back when the war was one of liberation."

Another variable is the increasing numbers of National Guard and Army Reserves troops that are being sent overseas. Because they receive relatively little warning before deployment and are often less prepared for combat than soldiers in regular units, Dr. Friedman said, Guard and Reserves troops are more prone to post-traumatic stress.

"This study was only about those who were exposed to things that, in essence, were part of their jobs," he said. "There is a major concern about how Guard and Reserve troops are going to fare, particularly now that their tours are being extended."

Citation: Anahad O'Connor, "1 in 6 Iraq Veterans Is Found to Suffer Stress-Related Disorder," New York Times (01 July 2004.)