By Thomas Wagner
The Associated Press, 27 April 2006
BAGHDAD, Iraq - One year ago Friday, when Iraq formed its first freely elected government, Americans and Iraqis hoped it would lead to a drop in violence. But Iraqis have continued to die in the thousands, and this year the trend is up.
Figures compiled by The Associated Press over the past 12 months show more than 8,000 people have been killed and there are increasing cases of civilians being kidnapped, killed and dumped in public places.
The numbers offer a counterpoint of caution for Washington's hopes that Iraq's second freely elected government, being formed now, will help curb violence.
American officials tout the selection of a new prime minister April 22 as the start of a unity government that could bring closer the departure of U.S. troops. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld visited Iraq on Wednesday to show their support.
But optimistic forecasts that accompanied other milestones - the 2004 restoration of Iraqi sovereignty after U.S. occupation and the formation of the first elected government 10 months later - turned sour.
Twice last year, on Jan. 30 and Dec. 15, millions of Iraqis risked their lives to vote in free elections for new parliaments, then watched their chosen legislators squabble for months over forming a government.
When the first freely elected government in decades took office a year ago Friday, Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari said Iraqis who had "challenged tyranny" at the polls "will help this government to succeed and will not be intimidated."
A year later, al-Jaafari has been denied a second term, blamed for failing to deliver on that pledge.
When al-Jaafari took over, U.S. officials and many Iraqis hoped security would improve, but the insurgency soon resumed. Sectarian tensions also began to rise and, with the bombing of an important Shiite shrine two months ago, burst into outright fighting.
AP's figures show that at least 8,107 Iraqis have been killed and 10,519 wounded, most of them civilians, in the year beginning April 28, 2005.
The top killer was bombs (3,895), followed by gunfire (1,960) and the discovery of dumped bodies (1,684).
In March alone, at least 1,038 Iraqis were killed in war-related violence, according to AP figures - the highest monthly total in the past 12 months.
Three of the five largest surges in violence during the year have occurred since January. That is especially true regarding the dumping of bodies. Four of the five biggest increases in that category occurred in the months of March and April.
When it comes to deaths by gunfire, the first, third and fourth largest increases have occurred since mid-January. Serious suicide bombings happened throughout the year, but the worst such attacks - killing more than 120 people - came Jan. 5.
These numbers include civilians, government officials, and police and security forces, and are considered only a minimum based on AP reporting. The actual number is likely higher, as many killings go unreported or uncounted.
AP's tally is compiled from hospital, police and military officials cited in news stories, as well as accounts from reporters and photographers at the scenes. The security personnel include Iraqi military, police and police recruits, and bodyguards. Insurgent deaths are not a part of the Iraqi count.
Also not included in this count are the nearly 1,000 Shiite pilgrims killed in August 2005 during a bridge stampede caused by someone shouting there was a suicide bomber in their midst.
AP began collecting this information on April 28, 2005, when the first freely elected government after Saddam Hussein's downfall took office.
The AP study reaches back one year. Other studies suggest that the violence has increased yearly since the U.S. invasion. Iraq Body Count, a British anti-war group, said more than 12,600 Iraqi civilians were killed in the year ending March 1, up 10 percent from the previous year and about double the total for the first year after the U.S. invaded.
In Iraq's widespread violence, it often is difficult to tell whether insurgents, militias or common criminals are responsible for killings.
U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad recently said Iraq's militias are killing more people than insurgents are.
And the protracted legislative squabbling before the new prime minister-designate, Nouri al-Maliki, was picked may have allowed the militias to break free of the limited control that political parties have over them and to step up sectarian killings, said Toby Dodge, an Iraq specialist at the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London.
Civil war may already be largely under way in Iraq, said Bob Ayers of the Chatham House think tank in London. Either way, Iraq faces tough choices and problems.
"The freedom to vote is unique. The Iraqi people clearly wanted to do that," he said. "But imposing democracy and changing the government structure doesn't change the country's historical, cultural and religious problems."
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Citation: Thomas Wagner. "New government doesn't slow Iraq killings," The Associated Press, 27 April 2006.
Original URL: http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/world/14443705.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp
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