By Steven R. Weisman
New York Times
29 November 2004
WASHINGTON, Nov. 28 - In the calculation of the Bush administration, Iraq faces a turning point on Jan. 30, when the first authentic elections in modern history are to take place. But a fresh wave of doubts about whether the violent Iraqi insurgency will undermine the elections' legitimacy or force their delay have posed a major challenge to the administration as it guides Iraq on a bumpy road to democratization.
For now, administration officials are standing firm in the face of a fresh round of demands from some respected Sunni leaders in Iraq that the elections be postponed. Secretary of State Colin L. Powell heard similar concerns last week from Arab envoys at a meeting on Iraq's future in Sharm el Sheik, Egypt, and he summarily rejected them.
Administration officials say they cannot rule out that elections might not occur on time but that a decision on whether to delay them is unjustified at present.
"It's going to be very hard to hold elections by the end of January, and we would be foolish to guarantee that we'll make it," said a senior administration official. "Some developments are working against us. But a lot of them are also working in our favor, and there is no reason to give up on our timetable right now."
Going further, many administration officials see the recent demands by some Sunni leaders for a delay as mere political gamesmanship by parties unable to gain a popular footing and determined to get more time to establish their political bases.
Leading the charge for a delay, for example, is Adnan Pachachi, a prominent Sunni politician who was once a favorite of the Bush administration to serve as Iraq's president. But a Western diplomat based in Baghdad said Mr. Pachachi's motivations, while based in part on concern about lack of security, were also self-serving.
"Politically, Pachachi is not in a very strong position," the diplomat said. "This is one way of his maximizing his position if he tries to get on a slate fielded by one of the other parties."
American insistence that the voting occur on schedule has been fortified by the opposition to a delay from Iraq's most revered Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, and by what American officials say is the support of Kurdish leaders, even though some Kurds are having second thoughts about the timing.
From the beginning of the American invasion and occupation in 2003, administration policy makers have tried to placate Ayatollah Sistani because Iraq's Shiites compose about 60 percent of the population, even if doing so meant angering Iraq's Sunni minority.
Now, however, the drive to hold an election in which large numbers of Sunnis might not take part either because of violence, intimidation or boycotts is raising concerns among some officials that a lopsided turnout could make Sunnis feel even more disenfranchised, leading to even more anti-American violence.
Administration officials say they have had enormous trouble enlisting Sunni participation in the political process, especially because traditional Sunni leaders in the central part of the country were accustomed to being allied with the Baathists, and those elements are still arrayed against the American presence.
In the next couple of weeks, American officials say, Prime Minister Ayad Allawi will intensify efforts to get Sunnis to take part. That course was also urged by leaders of Sunni-dominated countries in the Middle East, especially Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Egypt.
But given Sunni resentment after the American invasion and de-Baathification, and Sunni fears of being marginalized in a democratic Iraq, the chances of Dr. Allawi's success are regarded by many as slim.
Meanwhile, what may be postponed, administration and Iraqi officials say, is not the election, but the deadline for the filing of slates to run in the election. That deadline is Tuesday, but officials say it may be put off until perhaps Dec. 10 to give the Sunni parties more time to ally with other groupings.
The basic concern about whether the elections can be held, and whether they will be beneficial to Iraq, center on two intertwining realities.
"It's like the twin strands of a double helix of a DNA molecule," said an official planning for the vote. "One strand is the technical and operational part. We are basically on course for that one, in perhaps 70 or 80 percent of Iraq," the official said. "But the other strand, without which you can't have DNA, is the overall environment. There we have a problem."
The elections are to choose a 275-seat legislature that will write a new constitution for Iraq and select another set of interim leaders. At the root of the difficulties is the fact that with United Nations participation, L. Paul Bremer III, a former head of the occupation authority, decreed that representatives would be chosen on one single nationwide constituency, rather than divided into different constituencies for each area of Iraq.
The fear among some election planners is that if, for example, Sunni Arabs are unable or unwilling to vote, and Shiites and Kurds turn out in large numbers, it will marginalize the Sunnis even further. "Let's say that the Kurds vote 90 percent and the Shiites vote 80 percent and because of insecurity, violence and intimidation, the Sunni Arab nationalists vote only 25 or 30 percent," said a Western diplomat. "You'll have a hell of a hangover the next day if that happens. It could mean 10 or 15 percent Sunni representation in the assembly."
"Remember that Sunnis are used to running the country under Saddam," the diplomat said. "You have to ask yourself whether, if these results occur, the Sunnis are going to lift the insurgency or even intensify it. You have to be worried that you're creating conditions for breaking up Iraq."
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Citation: Steven R. Weisman, "U.S. Firm on Iraq Election Date in Face of Rising Concerns," New York Times, 29 November 2004.
Original URL:
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/29/politics/29diplo.html?oref=login&pagewanted=print&position
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