By Omar al-Ibadi
Reuters, 04 December 2005
DIWANIYA, Iraq, Dec 4 (Reuters) - In towns and cities along the Euphrates river south of Baghdad, a heartland of Iraq's Shi'ite Muslim majority, there are signs of shifting loyalties ahead of parliamentary elections next week.
The area voted overwhelmingly for the main Shi'ite Islamist bloc in the first post-Saddam Hussein election in January but some opinions are changing as the performance of the Shi'ite bloc in government has come in for widespread criticism.
The main Shi'ite list, the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), is still Iraq's most powerful political force, but it may not be so easy to repeat January's success when it took more than half the seats in parliament.
Instead, voters are talking more about Iyad Allawi, a secular Shi'ite who briefly served as interim prime minister, and of Moqtada al-Sadr, an aggressive, Arab nationalist Shi'ite cleric, as they reassess the UIA's Islamist, pro-Iranian bent.
Strategically at the heart of Iraq's fertile and populated areas, the region was long a focus of resistance to outside forces during Turkish and British rule in previous centuries.
"I will vote for Allawi because I'm fed up with this government," said Abu Ali, 56, who farms rice near Diwaniya by the river banks where men first mastered agriculture. "The Shi'ite government hasn't fulfilled its obligations to us."
While the evidence is anecdotal, conversations with dozens of potential voters in Diwaniya, Najaf, Kerbala and Hilla -- the four regional capitals of the Middle Euphrates -- suggest that while the UIA may take a majority of votes, Allawi can expect to build on his modest showing in January.
And Sadr, whose youth and anti-Americanism appeal to poor, urban Shi'ites and increasingly those in rural areas too, can also expect to expand his influence in a key electoral zone.
Though part of the Alliance, Sadr has kept some distance from the coalition and is running some separate candidates; he could gain influence at the expense of rival Islamist leaders.
"We as Sadr followers think that the ruling Shi'ite powers have less national ties and only look to their own benefits," said farmer Hassan Abdul Zahra, 32, identifying two of the chief concerns some voters have about the UIA.
SECULAR APPEAL
Political scientists expect a drift away from the UIA in the Dec. 15 election, particularly among urban, educated Shi'ites with less doctrinaire religious beliefs.
At the same time, they expect the UIA's close association with Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq's most influential Shi'ite cleric, to guarantee it strong support among poor, observant Shi'ites, even if Sistani has not explicitly endorsed the list.
"Voting on the basis of religion has failed," said Samar al -Khuzaie, a professor of political history in Diwaniya.
He argues the government, dominated by UIA politicians, is perceived as too close to Shi'ite, non-Arab Iran and has failed to improve security and allowed sectarian tensions to deepen.
"Those elements will hinder Shi'ites from voting for the same figures again -- they will prefer a more secular option," he said last week.
In recent days, Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari, the head of the Dawa Party, one of two Islamist parties that dominate UIA, has made it clear that he regards Allawi as a growing threat.
Sistani's office in the holy city of Najaf has also swung into action, calling on Shi'ites to back religious candidates against secular leaders and to avoid splitting the Shi'ite vote.
Allawi's previous experience as prime minister, when he was regarded as tough and uncompromising, and his appeal across Iraq's sectarian and ethnic divides, with many Sunni Arabs and some Kurds supporting him, make him a strong contender.
"Many here don't know who to vote for," said Sheikh Salih al-Bohadla, the leader of a large central Euphrates tribe. "But I think many as well will tend away from Islamic choices."
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Citation: Omar al-Ibadi. "In Euphrates towns, Iraq's Shi'ites weigh choices," Reuters, 04 December 2005.
Original URL: http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/BAK336597.htm
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