Inside Defense
Dec. 15, 2009 -- Defense officials will begin annual assessments next spring to review whether the envisioned end strength of 400,000 for the Afghan security forces still makes sense, according to officials and documents.
Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, cited the 400,000 goal in his Aug. 30 assessment for Defense Secretary Robert Gates. But during an appearance before Congress last week, McChrystal himself portrayed the figure as being subject to change.
“[I] think we need to view that not as a hard number at this point but as a goal we work toward and adjust constantly,” he told members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee Dec. 10.
A new briefing from the international command in charge of training Afghanistan's forces says officials will make any growth beyond 243,000 -- to be reached in October 2010 -- “conditions-based.” The number includes 134,000 Afghan National Army and 109,000 Afghan National Police personnel.
The briefing was published by the “Small Wars Journal” blog today. In a message this morning, editors wrote they received it from Army Lt. Gen. William Caldwell, the new commander of the NATO Training Mission-Afghanistan and the Combined Security Transition Command-Afghanistan.
Reaching the subsequent step in the evolution of the Afghan forces -- 282,000 personnel by July 2011 -- would require “significant improvement” in recruiting, retention and “attrition,” the document states. The move also would require “enhanced accountability” of personnel, equipment and pay, the document adds.
The first annual assessment for evaluating the growth beyond 243,000 is scheduled for sometime between April and June of next year, according to the briefing.
Since the mention of the 400,000 target figure in the McChrystal assessment, some officials have privately questioned its rationale.
“[I am] not sure the assumptions that number was based upon remains valid today,” one military official told InsideDefense.com on condition of anonymity.
In testimony last week, McChrystal said an analysis “using basic [counterinsurgency] doctrine” arrived at an optimal level of nearly 600,000 forces. Officials finally settled on 400,000 because “not all the country is threatened” by the Taliban insurgency, he added.
“A number of 400,000, divided between the army and the police -- of 240,000 ultimately in the army, and 160,000 in the police -- would not be really out of range for that part of the world for standing armies and police,” McChrystal said. -- Sebastian Sprenger
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