President Hamid Karzai is caught between foreigners and citizens, between tribes and ethnic groups. His indecisiveness baffles even allies.
By Kim Barker
Chicago Tribune, 21 June 2006
KABUL, Afghanistan -- President Hamid Karzai sat at the head of the long table and told the tribal elders he would try to help them with a personnel problem. But he had to balance the needs of Afghans and the desires of foreigners.
"Do you agree with me?" Karzai asked. The room of 60 men was silent. "Why are you quiet? Do you agree with me? Do you support me?"
"No!" several men shouted. Not unless Karzai reversed his decision to remove the eastern Afghanistan border police commander.
"You are the president," said elder Payandagul Shinwari. "You can do it. You should do it for us. Otherwise we will not support you."
This was just one group demanding something from Karzai in exchange for its support. Strangled by high expectations, squeezed from all sides, Karzai is caught between foreigners and Afghans, between tribes and ethnic groups. At times he appears paralyzed, unable to act. He's in a corner, trying to please as much as he can but suffering his lowest popularity ratings.
As for the request to keep the border commander in his post, Karzai, 48, of the Pashtun tribal group, said he would look into it.
Nearly five years ago, Karzai was Afghanistan's hope, the darling of the West, the embodiment of democracy and Islam. He was charming, dashing, inspiring. When the question of leadership in Iraq came up, the world bemoaned the fact that Iraq had no Karzai.
But in recent weeks Karzai has faced some of the worst pressure of his presidency, and not just over the Taliban's re-emergence, the burgeoning heroin trade and allegations of corruption within the government.
The pressure also comes from the international community, baffled by his recent decisions on security and police reform. It's from average Afghans, frustrated with what they see as a lack of progress in their war-torn nation. And it's from new political opponents, flexing muscles in the fledgling parliament and working to undermine Karzai in the streets.
The May riots touched off by a crash involving a U.S. military vehicle in Kabul underscored those frustrations. At least 20 people died.
"Hamid Karzai's future is not very hopeful, because he has lost the trust people had," said Qaseem Akhgar, an analyst with the Afghan Independent Human Rights Commission. "The reason he is still in power is there is no other choice."
Accomplishments considerable
It's not clear whether any leader could have lived up to the expectations of Afghans and the world. But the accomplishments in Afghanistan have been considerable. Five years ago the Taliban ruled and Al Qaeda leaders had a haven. Now the country has an elected president, an elected parliament, a constitution, a national army.
"It's a necessity to have Hamid Karzai in Afghanistan now," said parliament member Mohammad Mohaqiq, a former warlord who lost to Karzai in the 2004 presidential election. "There is no way except the way Hamid Karzai does things, by being soft toward powerful people. It's not the best way, but there's no other way."
Some of Karzai's predicament is of his own making. Critics say he behaves at times like a weather vane, a leader who tilts toward the last opinion he hears, incapable of making a decision and sticking to it. Some Afghans call him "the actor," for his ability to play to different crowds.
In a recent meeting with U.S. Gen. James Jones, the NATO commander, Karzai showed his frustration with the competing demands on him, specifically diplomats' complaints about the way he handled police reform. Critics have said Karzai unilaterally substituted 13 people as police officials for others who were more qualified. They say those 13 men, including the new police chief of Kabul, are either thugs or unqualified.
"There was an agreement on all these names," Karzai told Jones, adding that he ran all the substitutions past Western diplomats. "On the police chief of Kabul, I personally called the U.S. ambassador before I signed."
Therein lies much of Karzai's problem, according to critics: He has been so busy trying to make the right decisions, so busy consulting with foreigners and Afghan tribal leaders, that he has a difficult time making any decision in a crisis, such as the violence in Kabul on May 29.
That morning, people started demonstrating almost immediately after a U.S. military truck lost control and ran over 12 Afghan vehicles. As peaceful demonstrations turned into riots, likely with the support of Karzai's political opponents, and Afghans shouted "Death to America" and "Death to Karzai," the president himself was silent. He waited almost until the riots had run their course before putting out a televised statement, appealing for calm.
"He's hugely charismatic, hugely well-intentioned," said British Lt. Gen. David Richards, commander of the International Security Assistance Force, the NATO-led force that soon will assume security control of most of Afghanistan. "He's got some great ideas. But he has a problem translating those ideas into timely action."
When he does make a decision, he is often ignored. In December, responding to pressure from the new parliament, Karzai announced that all concrete barriers in Kabul should be removed. Foreign aid groups, companies and security forces use such barriers for security to prevent suicide bombs and other attacks, but they snarl traffic and have become a symbol to Afghans of how foreigners dominate city streets.
Six months later, traffic is worse than ever. The barriers still stand.
Observers say Karzai has been trapped by bad advice and by the people around him. They complain about some of his allies, especially the man he reportedly backed for speaker of the lower house of parliament, a warlord accused of atrocities. They describe the president as increasingly isolated, master of the palace but not the country.
"Hamid Karzai is a good man," said Hamidullah Tokhi, a parliament member from southern Zabul province. "He doesn't hold grudges. He's kind to all Afghans. But there are some advisers who have circled Karzai and given him bad advice. They have almost taken Hamid Karzai hostage. He cannot do anything independently."
He still needs ex-warlords
From the very beginning Karzai has been dependent on the support of foreigners and on compromises among Afghans. He still needs foreign troops and foreign aid dollars. He still needs the support of former warlords.
The men around Karzai blame much of the criticism on political opponents and anonymous Western diplomats who talk to reporters but know little about Afghanistan or how business gets done. They argue that Karzai's decisions are in the best interests of the nation. They say that what is needed in Afghanistan now is a shift in thinking--that instead of looking at Karzai as some sort of Western lackey, he should be viewed as an elected president with a mandate from voters, allowed to chart his own course.
"At the end of the day, he understands the politics of this country," said Jawed Ludin, the president's chief of staff. "There should never be any doubt that the president has the best interests of this nation . . . at heart. I don't think anybody would argue about his sincerity."
Afghanistan is a shifting game board of tribal alliances and past wars, where wrongs from generations ago echo today. Ex-communists, former royalists, former Islamic fighters, former Taliban and former warlords all jockey for power.
The Tajik ethnic group complains that all the key positions have gone to the Pashtuns, who make up the country's southern tribal belt. The Pashtuns say the Tajiks are in control. The Hazaras and Uzbeks complain they have been sidelined.
Every ethnic group has dozens of splits. The Pashtuns are divided into two main tribes, which are then divided and divided and divided. Some of these tribes have fought each other for generations.
Karzai has to balance all of these groups. His main message has been consistent--that Afghans should forget past hurts, as much as possible, and think of themselves as Afghans first, not Tajiks or Pashtuns or Popalzais.
After a recent lunch, he pointed out four elders from one Uruzgan district and two ethnic groups, who live side by side in peace, sharing the Pashtun language.
"That's how good this country was," Karzai said. "That's how we want to make it again."
But the country is in danger of sliding back into chaos. The Taliban has mounted its biggest challenge to Karzai's government since fleeing to the mountains.
The Taliban has taken over some districts in southern Afghanistan; it's seen as the law there, preferable to the government. More people are growing poppies, the raw material for heroin. Officials routinely ask for bribes by demanding "sweets." Many have been linked to the drug trade.
More and more Afghans are disenchanted with their leader, discouraged by a lack of progress and by Karzai's inability to tackle corruption or drugs or the Taliban or even concrete barriers. People blame him for everything that happens.
"We do not need a soft and quiet government now," said Adel Nasseri, 31, a taxi driver in Kabul. "We need a dictator."
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Citation: Kim Barker. "An Afghan pressure cooker," Chicago Tribune, 21 June 2006.
Original URL: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-0606210192jun21,1,671412.story?coll=chi-newsnationworld-hed
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