By Erik Eckholm
New York Times
28 December 2004
BAGHDAD, Iraq, Dec. 27 - A suicide car bomber set off a huge explosion outside the Baghdad headquarters of Iraq's largest Shiite political party on Monday morning, killing 9 guards and visitors and wounding 67, the Interior Ministry said.
The leader of the party, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, who has emerged as one of the country's most powerful political figures before the national elections next month, was inside the building but unhurt in the blast, which could be felt across central Baghdad.
The attack underscored the fragility of the electoral process here and evoked the lurking threat of sectarian strife or even civil war. Mr. Hakim's son, in an interview after the explosion, ascribed the attack to die-hard Baathists and Sunni Islamic militants, whom he accused of trying to undermine the elections.
In another setback for the elections for a Constitutional Assembly, scheduled for Jan. 30, the largest of the Sunni Arab parties with a slate of candidates announced it was withdrawing, saying security conditions would not permit fair elections.
Mohsen Abdul Hameed, the leader of the Sunni group, the Iraqi Islamic Party, said it was not calling for a boycott of the elections, as the more militant Muslim Scholars Association had, but repeated demands for a six-month delay.
Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, speaking at a State Department news conference on Monday, responded to the party's announcement by saying that the decision might not be final. "We'll have to wait and see whether that turns out to be the case or not," he said.
Mr. Powell said the American response to security problems and the possible lack of participation in the election by Sunni Arabs was to encourage "all Sunnis and all Sunni leaders to join in this effort to say no to terrorism, no to murder and yes to democracy."
He disputed part of an article in The New York Times on Sunday that reported that American officials had begun talking with Iraqi leaders about possibly expanding the size of the Iraq National Assembly and adding Sunni lawmakers if only a small number of Sunnis are elected.
Mr. Powell said that the option of adding seats was not provided for by the law enacted under the American occupation earlier this year, and that the United States was not "participating in any discussion with Iraqi leaders" on changing the law.
A Western diplomat and an administration official said last week that such discussions had begun with some Iraqi leaders, but that they were extremely delicate because it would be up to the Iraqis to make such a decision.
Mr. Powell said a future government of Iraq "would certainly have to take into account the ethnic mix of the country" in filling positions in the government. The Times article said there had been discussions to ensure that if Sunni Arabs failed to participate in the elections, they would still be guaranteed positions in the government reflecting their proportion of Iraq's population, which is about 20 percent.
The bomb attack on Monday, on the offices of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, followed a series of killings and bombings of Shiite clerics. In a typical example, reported Sunday, a cleric was shot in his car as he approached Baghdad from the south.
Many Iraqis believe the attacks are being waged by former Baathists and Sunni Arabs concerned about the ascendancy of Shiites, who make up about 60 percent of the population but have long been dominated by the Sunni Arab minority of central Iraq. Some Sunni leaders also say Mr. Hakim and other religiously oriented Shiite politicians are too much under the sway of the Shiite theocracy in Iran.
While Saddam Hussein controlled Iraq, Mr. Hakim was in exile in Iran and ran his party's militia. He is at the top of the election slate put forth by a coalition of mainly Shiite groups, apparently engineered with the blessing of the reclusive but hugely powerful Shiite leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.
Both Mr. Hakim and Ayatollah Sistani have said they reject an Iranian-style rule by clerics, but their religious roots are deep.
Shiite leaders, including Mr. Hakim, have counseled restraint in the face of the attacks. "Al-Hakim is in good health, and this explosion will increase our persistence in continuing the political process without fear," said Mr. Hakim's son, Amar al-Hakim. "The aim of the bombing is to push the Iraqis to fight each other and to derail the elections."
Restraint in the face of what they perceive as deadly provocations has made sense for Shiite leaders, who need the support of American forces to complete the elections they crave.
"If the Shia retaliate in a major way, they'll lose more than they gain," said Ghassan al-Atiyah, a former exile and political analyst and a Shiite who has established a secular, multiethnic slate. "The Americans are doing the dirty work for them, killing the Sunni insurgents, so why should they get involved?"
But the assassination of a popular leader like Mr. Hakim could easily lead to demands for revenge, fanning the embers of ethnic war, some Iraqis fear.
That might only play into the hands of Sunni militants, who Mr. Atiyah said may be feeling they have little to lose by choosing violence. "What do we have to lose if we cause mayhem?" he asked. "We are bound to be dominated by the Shia anyway."
Steven R. Weisman contributed reporting from Washington for this article.
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Citation: Erik Eckholm, "Attacks on Iraqi Shiite Leaders Raise Fears of Civil Strife," New York Times, 28 December 2004.
Original URL: http://www.nytimes.com/learning/students/pop/articles/28iraq.html
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