By Thom Shanker and Eric Schmitt.
New York Times
03 December 2004
WASHINGTON, Dec. 2 - The expulsion of Iraqi guerrillas and foreign fighters from Falluja has provided the American military with a treasure-trove of intelligence that is giving commanders insights into the next phase of the insurgency, and helping them reshape the American counterinsurgency campaign, senior Pentagon and military officials say.
Documents and computers found in Falluja are providing clues to the identity of home-grown opponents of the new Iraqi government, mostly former Baathists. The intelligence is being used to hunt those leaders and their channels of financing, as well as to detect cracks, even feuds, within the insurgency that can be exploited to weaken its base.
Even so, senior Pentagon officials and military officers said Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the Jordanian terrorist leader who fled Falluja before the offensive, is setting up new cells in Mosul, in the north, and in the desert of Al Anbar Province west of Falluja. At the same time, his network can no longer communicate effectively by use of messengers and cellphones, officials said.
The American military is trying to press insurgents hard as they try to regroup across Iraq, requiring the additional forces announced Wednesday that will push the American military presence in Iraq to 150,000 troops by next month, its highest level since the invasion last year.
"The Falluja operation was very successful, and we want to capitalize on that success," Gen. Richard B. Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Thursday. "We need additional troops to do that."
The insurgents are expected to rely less on attacks by home-made bombs and ambushes, and instead focus on a campaign of coercion by violence directed at Iraqis who cooperate with the Americans in building security forces or a new national government and their families.
Senior Pentagon and military officials predict no easy success in their effort, acknowledging that the insurgency is resilient, well-armed, lavishly financed and organized in cells without the typical hierarchy of leaders and subordinates.
Guerrillas have mounted spectacular attacks on government buildings and Iraqi security forces, but for an insurgency that now has lost Falluja as a safe haven to build explosives and plot attacks on police stations and Iraqi National Guard headquarters, assassination is expected to become the primary weapon.
"We're seeing a shift toward more intimidation," General Myers said, adding that assassinations in Iraq were up significantly in the past month. "The security situation will get worse as we get close to these January elections."
That is pushing the American military to a new strategy. "We are chasing them," said one senior commander in Iraq. "We don't want them to rest. We want to chase them every hour of every day."
American and Iraqi forces have found cellphone numbers in Falluja that they are using to track insurgents, military officials said. They also have recovered lists of family members of foreign fighters in Iraq who should receive payments if their relatives are killed and lists of Iraqis working with the Americans who were being singled out by insurgents, military officers said.
In addition, military intelligence and operations officers have compiled combat reports and analysis into a lengthy document, called "Operation Al Fajr Roll-up," which draws a stark portrait of insurgent activities in Falluja and lists discoveries by American forces since the offensive began on Nov. 8.
The half-inch-thick document, completed on Nov. 27, describes how at least 20 of the city's 133 mosques were used as fighting positions or weapons caches, actions the military says are clear violations of the laws of armed conflict.
Other sections of the report, which was provided by a senior Pentagon official, describe how insurgents in Falluja operated counterfeiting centers that were stamping out forged identification papers, travel documents, vehicle registration cards and banking transfer forms.
Valuable intelligence also is being drawn from men captured during the battle for Falluja, although senior officers said that not all of the 1,200 taken into custody have turned out to be insurgents or terrorists and a significant number have been released.
One senior official said that initial predictions of about 4,000 insurgents in Falluja at the time the offensive began appear to have been accurate. Of those now in detention, the most are Iraqi, although there are 28 foreigners held by the military, among them 6 each from Egypt and Syria, 3 from Saudi Arabia and 3 from Sudan, 2 from Jordan and 1 each from Libya, Turkmenistan, Yugoslavia, Britain and Tunisia. One captured fighter was identified as a Palestinian and 1 as a Kurd.
The Iraqi insurgency is a complex association of former Baathists, radical Sunnis and Shiites, foreign fighters and criminals that is laid out like a flat web, which makes it difficult to attack strictly by military force.
While commanders estimate that hundreds of militants were killed in the Falluja offensive, the number of hard-core insurgents across the country before the battle was estimated at 8,000 to 12,000. When active sympathizers or covert accomplices were included, the total number was estimated at more than 20,000, American officials said.
The insurgency consists of as many as 50 militant cells that draw significant money from an underground financial network run by former Baath Party leaders and Saddam Hussein's relatives, the officials say. The financing for their operations is supplemented in large part by wealthy Saudi donors and Islamic charities that funnel large sums of cash through Syria, according to the officials, who have access to detailed intelligence reports.
The insurgency also has had no trouble recruiting new foot soldiers.
General Myers declined Thursday to estimate how large the insurgency is, saying it was too hard to tell. While he described foreign fighters as "a very serious threat" in Iraq, the main risk to long-term stability in the country comes from former members of Saddam Hussein's security services, including former Republican Guard officers. His comments reflect a shift in thinking from earlier this year when foreign terrorist were blamed as the most significan cuase of instability in Iraq.
Robert F. Worth contributed reporting for this article from Baghdad.
----------------------------------------------------
Citation: Thom Shanker and Eric Schmitt, "Falluja Data Said to Pressure Guerrillas," New York Times, 03 December 2004.
Original URL: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/03/international/middleeast/03falluja.html?oref=login&pagewanted=print&position=
--------------------------------------------------