By Eric Schmitt
New York Times
07 August 2005
WASHINGTON, Aug. 6 - In a classified briefing to senior Pentagon officials last month, the top American commander in the Middle East outlined a plan that would gradually reduce American forces in Iraq by perhaps 20,000 to 30,000 troops by next spring if conditions on the ground permitted, three senior military officers and Defense Department officials said this week.
The assessment by Gen. John P. Abizaid, the head of the military's Central Command, tracks with a statement made last week by the top American general in Iraq, Gen. George W. Casey Jr., that the Pentagon could make "some fairly substantial reductions" in troops by next spring and summer if the political process in Iraq remained on track and Iraqi forces assumed more responsibility for securing the country.
Together, the generals' appraisals offer some of the most concrete indications yet that the Pentagon is moving toward reducing American forces in Iraq. They also reflect the Bush administration's growing concerns over how the country's involvement in Iraq is influencing domestic considerations.
But in his assessment, given as part of a larger regional analysis, General Abizaid also warned that it is possible that the Pentagon might have to keep the current levels of about 138,000 American soldiers in Iraq throughout 2006 if security and political trends are unfavorable for a withdrawal. The number of troops will temporarily increase this December to provide security for Iraqi elections. And some troops leaving Iraq could be held in Kuwait as a reserve force.
Senior administration and Pentagon officials, as well as political leaders in both parties, say there is mounting anxiety over the $5 billion-a-month cost of the war, an overtaxed military, dismal recruiting in the Army and National Guard, dwindling public support for the operation, and a steadily growing number of casualties, punctuated this week by the death of 20 marines in two separate attacks in western Iraq.
"When you wake up in the morning and lose 14 marines, people say, 'What's going on?' " said Newt Gingrich, the former speaker of the House and a Republican, referring to the attack on Wednesday, when an armored troop carrier hit three stacked mines. "This is a very complicated equation." Mr. Gingrich, a member of a Pentagon advisory panel, said military casualties in Iraq could play a prominent role in next fall's Congressional elections.
President Bush and Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld have insisted that United States troops will remain in Iraq as long as necessary and that there is no set timetable for withdrawal. But the war in Iraq and possible troop reductions are expected to come up when Mr. Rumsfeld and other top national security aides meet with the president at his ranch in Crawford, Tex., on Thursday.
With some prodding by American officials, a shift in thinking and public pronouncements from Iraqi leaders is also unfolding in Baghdad. On Thursday, Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari outlined a new, 12-point security plan for the country promising to better coordinate the work of the Ministries of Defense and Interior, to improve intelligence and protect infrastructure more effectively.
Also last week, a new commission that includes General Casey and the new American ambassador to Baghdad, Zalmay Khalilzad, as well as the Iraqi defense and interior ministers, held its first meeting to define the conditions to be met for a phased American troop withdrawal.
The commission, whose recommendations are due to Mr. Jaafari by Sept. 26, said in a statement that the main measurement will be the ability of the 176,000 Iraqi military and police forces now in place to assume enhanced security roles. Other considerations include the size and strength of the insurgency, and the ability of the new Iraqi government to take on governance duties.
After meeting with Mr. Rumsfeld in Baghdad two weeks ago, Mr. Jaafari reiterated that there was no firm timetable for an American withdrawal but added that Iraqis "desire speed in that regard."
American military planners continue to refine their future requirements for troops. But under the current thinking, as reflected in briefings that General Abizaid and General Casey have provided to Mr. Rumsfeld, the number of American troops would temporarily increase in December to about 160,000 troops, an increase achieved through overlapping the normal rotation of incoming forces and those who have finished their tours, to provide security for elections to a new National Assembly, scheduled for Dec. 15.
Assuming security conditions allow, the number would then gradually decline, first back down to about 138,000 troops, or roughly 17 brigades and their supporting forces, and then by another 20,000 to 30,000 forces by late spring, senior officers and Pentagon officials said. Further reductions of tens of thousands of troops are possible throughout 2006, if conditions set by the American-Iraqi commission are met.
"General Abizaid has consistently understood that if conditions on the ground warrant it, a smaller coalition footprint could bolster self-government in Iraq," said Lawrence Di Rita, the chief Pentagon spokesman.
Army brigades and divisions assigned to Iraq could be sent home before the end of their normal yearlong tour, or other units preparing to go to the combat zone could be told to stay where they are, if American commanders and Iraqi officials believe they are not needed. "The rotation schedule is up in the air," said one senior Army officer based in Europe who is awaiting deployment orders.
Some American forces could be held in Kuwait, south of Iraq, as a reserve force in case security deteriorates, said one military officer who has been briefed on the planning.
"It will be something of a staged drawdown," Maj. Gen. J. B. Dutton of the British Marines, commander of allied forces in southern Iraq, told reporters on Friday. "Certain areas of the country will be able to take charge of their own security sooner than others."
Lt. Gen. David H. Petraeus, who leads the American effort to train Iraqi forces, said this week that Iraqi units would probably first control the nine southern provinces and the three Kurdish provinces, but he declined to offer a timetable.
In an interview with Al Arabiya on July 27, the Iraqi national security adviser, Mowaffak Rubbaie, said that it was likely that American troops would first turn over control to Iraqi security forces in cities such as Najaf, Karbala, Samawa and others in Iraqi Kurdistan.
How and when that handoff will take place is a sensitive issue that Mr. Rumsfeld addressed in a speech in Los Angeles on Thursday. He described a "tension" between having too many American troops in Iraq, which present a bigger target for insurgents and reinforce a perception that the United States is an occupying power, and too few capable American and Iraqi forces, which could lead to greater violence and imperil the fitful political progress and economic reconstruction.
"We are training the Iraqi security forces as fast as they can be trained," Mr. Rumsfeld said. "We are passing off pieces of real estate to the Iraqis as fast as they're capable of taking it over."
Over the past three months, more than 1,500 American military advisers have been assigned to work in Iraqi units, giving American commanders much keener insights into the strengths and weaknesses of individual units, as well as the Iraqi ministries.
The quality of the Iraqi security forces is uneven, these advisers say. General Petraeus said that more than two dozen of the 105 Iraqi Army battalions were now leading combat operations with American support. But a Pentagon assessment in July concluded that about half of Iraq's new police battalions were still being established and could not conduct operations, while the other half of the police units and two-thirds of the new army battalions were only "partially capable" of carrying out counterinsurgency missions.
Pentagon and other administration officials have been emphasizing in recent days the need to strengthen Iraq's political and economic framework to quell the insurgency, and not to rely on military might alone.
On his quick visit to Baghdad late last month, Mr. Rumsfeld laid out a blunt prescription for what Iraqi leaders must do in the coming weeks and months to ensure that a stable, secure and popularly elected government takes root, and to allow American troops to begin to withdraw. Specifically, he pressed the Iraqis to settle their sectarian and factional differences over the constitution so that a final version could be ready by the Aug. 15 deadline, and to hew to a timetable that calls for Iraqis to vote on the constitution in October and elect a new government in December.
"Success will occur only if there's progress on the political front," Mr. Rumsfeld said in his Los Angeles speech.
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Citation: Eric Schmitt, "Military Plans Gradual Cuts in Iraq Forces," New York Times, 7 August 2005.
Original URL: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/07/politics/07military.html?ei=5070&en=be7bffb8bd370f60&ex=1123992000&emc=eta1&pagewanted=print
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