Inside Pentagon, Aug 2009
Months after a senior military official cast doubt on whether eliminating the world’s nuclear weapons would be a goal in the Nuclear Posture Review, it has emerged on a Pentagon list of themes for the review, though it does not lead the lineup.
An Aug. 6 Defense Department fact sheet released to nuclear experts includes the goal amid a list of six themes for the NPR: maintain a safe, secure, effective and reliable nuclear deterrent; maintain extended deterrence to allies; consult with allies and friends; continue to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. national security strategy; continue concrete steps toward a world without nuclear weapons; enhance the effectiveness of the global nonproliferation regime; and provide a basis for defining national arms control and non-proliferation objectives.
The sweeping review aims to establish U.S. nuclear policy, strategy, capabilities and force posture for the next five to 10 years. The Pentagon plans to deliver the NPR report to Congress next February along with the Quadrennial Defense Review, the Aug. 6 document states. This is different from a June 2 DOD statement, which said the NPR would go to Congress in December.
At an April 23 Pentagon background briefing, a reporter asked a senior defense official and a senior military official whether the NPR would include the “global zero” goal. The senior defense official acknowledged that President Obama cited that as an ultimate goal in an April 5, 2009, speech in Prague.
“He also said that until that time, as long as adversaries possess nuclear weapons, we will maintain a robust and credible nuclear deterrent,” the senior defense official said. “And so I think, you know, this NPR is being taken in the context that he lays out in that speech, which is a desire to really strengthen non-proliferation progress, if you will; explore the possibility of further reductions in our own arsenal; while also ensuring that we take the steps necessary, both in terms of the infrastructure and the forces, to ensure that we have a safe and secure and reliable deterrent.”
The senior military official, however, questioned whether the NPR would directly address Obama’s vision for a nuclear-free world.
“But I don’t know that I would speculate to say that that would be a goal,” the senior military official replied. “This NPR, from our perspective, is one about deterrence, how should we deter. And deterrence involves more than just nuclear weapons. So there are other aspects of what the department does that need to be brought to bear to deter, you know, a potential adversary from using nuclear capability.”
The issue came up again July 23 when Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations, Low-Intensity Conflict and Interdependent Capabilities Michael Vickers spoke to reporters at a breakfast in Washington.
“The vision is clear and I think progress will be made,” Vickers replied.
But the Aug. 6 NPR background fact sheet sheds new light on the themes, which were not part of the June 2 NPR fact sheet released online by the Pentagon.
A source tracking nuclear issues noted Obama began his Prague speech by discussing the need to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in the National Security Strategy, but this is listed third in the list of six themes on the Aug. 6 fact sheet. The source wondered whether there is an implicit prioritization in DOD’s list of themes. At press time (Aug. 12), DOD did not respond to a request for comment.
But a second Aug. 6 NPR fact sheet -- this one on arms control, deterrence and START follow-on treaty negotiations -- begins by underscoring Obama’s pledge in Prague to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in the National Security Strategy and to take concrete steps toward a world without nuclear weapons.
“He also promised that as long as nuclear weapons exist, the United States will maintain a safe, secure, and effective arsenal to deter any adversary, and guarantee that defense to our allies,” the statement notes. The speech “sets the stage” for the NPR, which will “analyze the role of nuclear weapons in our national security
strategy, the size and composition of nuclear forces necessary to support that strategy, and the steps necessary to maintain a safe, secure, and effective nuclear deterrence posture,” the statement says.
Further, the statement says the NPR will recommend actions consistent with the president’s goals and will support “a new approach to arms control that reflects the current and future international environment.” This is a new and notable comment, the source said.
“The desired objective is to develop a U.S. nuclear posture that enhances the safety and security and preserves the effectiveness of our nuclear deterrent for as long as it is required, reduces the potential for conflict and nuclear use, enhances strategic stability world-wide, and strengthens the non-proliferation regime,” according to the statement.
There is no predetermined level of reductions for the U.S. arsenal, the statement says. “The DOD, in conjunction with the Departments of State and Energy, are committed to ensuring that decisions about nuclear force structure and posture continue to be based on strong analysis of the potential threat and a deep understanding of our deterrence and assurance requirements,” the statement adds. “The purpose of the review is to determine the appropriate strategy, force levels, and structures to meet national security objectives and extended deterrence requirements.”
The NPR will examine ways to reduce both the role and number of nuclear weapons, the statement says, although the complete elimination of nuclear weapons is not anticipated in the time frame of the review, which is five to 10 years. No one expects nuclear weapons to be eliminated within a decade, but if for instance the notion of doing so by 2025 is accepted, it might raise questions about whether to modernize some U.S. platforms that are good out to 2030, the source said.
The statement stresses extended deterrence to allies will remain a central element of U.S. nuclear policy.
“Extended deterrence to allies meets our formal Treaty commitments and contributes to our non-proliferation goals,” DOD writes. “The NPR is examining how to continue to provide extended deterrence to allies in a manner consistent with the long-term goal of eliminating nuclear weapons and reducing the role of nuclear weapons in national security of the United States and that of other countries around the globe.”
DOD maintains NPR and Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) Follow-on treaty negotiations are closely coordinated to ensure that the U.S. negotiating positions are fully consistent with ongoing NPR analysis concerning nuclear policy, strategy, and force structure. The U.S. and Russia plan to complete the negotiations by December, when START expires.
“After rigorous analysis, the NPR team determined that maintaining a nuclear triad with a significantly reduced number of operationally deployed strategic nuclear weapons (ODSNW) and accountable strategic delivery vehicles (SDV) would enhance our national security objectives and provide extended deterrence to allies and friends,” the statement notes. This is noteworthy, the source said.
These findings were reviewed by military and civilian leadership and vetted through the interagency, DOD writes. “START Follow-on treaty negotiating positions were then subsequently identified and approved at the Cabinet level. Although the specific guidance to our negotiating team remains classified, the results to date of the bilateral negotiations are reflected in the Joint Understanding resulting from the Presidential Summit,” according to the statement.
The NPR is continuing to mull “alternative strategic approaches beyond the immediate confines of the START Follow-on negotiations” to frame options for strategic nuclear decisions for the next five to 10 years, DOD writes.
“Alternative postures and force structures are being analyzed in this NPR to address other possible futures including security environments in which relations with Russia dramatically improve, implications if the START Follow-on treaty does not enter into force and if reset of the US-Russian relationship does not continue,” according to the statement. -- Christopher J. Castelli
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