By Bronwen Maddox
The Times, UK, 02 March 2006
WHAT happens if Iraq does plunge into civil war? It is clearly on the brink of that, as Zalmay Khalilzad, the US Ambassador, said this week. Unrelenting violence has followed the bombing of a revered Shia mosque last week.
Stories are pouring in of partition, by any other name. Shia and Sunni families are fleeing old mixed neighbourhoods — under threat of being killed — to be with their own people.
So what are the options, and how can other countries influence Iraq?
Best hope
The leaders of the Shia and Sunni groups decide to avert civil war. The Sunnis agree to rejoin talks about a new government. Shia leaders show more urgency (they have suggested talks could take months). As Khalilzad said: “I simply believe that the leaders of Iraq do not want a civil war.”
Worst case: civil war
Sectarian killings boil up. Sunnis drive out Shias from Baghdad and the centre. The South’s Sunnis flee north.
Breakup?
If only it could be that neat. Some analysts suggest Iraq might break into three sections: the Kurdish north, the Shia south, and the middle, overwhelmingly Sunni (which would become more that way). Ethnic loyalties would triumph over national identity — which has less than a 100-year history.
But the nightmare would be that if attempts to form a government failed, and Iraq began to fracture, the country would break into a dozen or so regions, backed by local militias.
Shia v Shia
Some of the worst fighting could come between rival militias. The South, overwhelmingly Shia, has been far more peaceful than the “Sunni triangle” in the centre. But that could change, as the three big Shia groups vied for power.
Arab neighbours
The dream would be that Iraq’s Arab neighbours, all with overwhelmingly Sunni populations, would rally together to try to bolster stability.
They have every interest in that. They don’t want their own Shia minorities to rise up (the Saudi Shia communities, harshly repressed for years, live on top of the country’s biggest oil wells). Nor do they want Sunni fundamentalist militancy, of the al-Qaeda variety.
They would prefer that Iraq’s government were led by Sunnis, of course. But if they can’t have that, they want stability.
Given their extraordinary detachment and passivity so far, however, it may be too much to hope that they would act together through the Arab League, and even send their own force.
Turkey
It is torn. It does not want Iraq’s Kurds to have a mini-state, for fear that its own Kurds will try to split away. It wants to protect Iraq’s Turkmen. But it is very keen to join the EU, and will listen to Europe’s call to stay out.
Iran
The new superpower? Iran has gained most from the war and the rise of the Shia. It has a huge new ally — provided Iraq still functions as a country.
It has suited Iran to see the US bogged down — but it does not want civil war, which it could not control. It may well want to encourage Shias to keep the lid on the south.
At the same time, it has been strengthening its links with Syria and Hezbollah, extending its reach over the region.
Coalition: stay or go?
The US does not want to leave Iraq burning as it runs for the exits. But if civil war breaks out, there may be little its forces can do. If there is no government, its mission to train a national security force stalls. Its best option might be to call for other countries’ help, perhaps through the United Nations.
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Citation: Bronwen Maddox. "What's coming next for a country on the brink of a civil war?," The Times, UK, 02 March 2006.
Original URL: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,173-2065433,00.html
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