By Gaurang Bhatt
India Defence.com, 16 January 2006
A previous article gave a nice analysis of the logistics and problems of the deal implementation. Recent developments in America put the future of the deal in doubt and Nicholas Burns is on his way to India with further demands. It is important to analyze what both parties are seeking from this deal.
India has limited uranium ore and has failed to ensure reliable and steady supplies prior to the 1974 nuclear detonation which triggered the American and nuclear supplier’s group sanctions. Retrospectively, it was a foolish bravado by Indira Gandhi, who was in political trouble and sought to divert attention as Clinton did by firing cruise missiles at Sudan and Afghanistan and bombed Iraq to escape his Monica Lewinsky troubles. The bomb detonation prompted Pakistan’s Bhutto to state that they would have a bomb even if they had to survive by eating grass. Pakistan had recently lost its east wing and suffered a humiliating defeat and was in a paranoid state. Thus the South Asia nuclear arms race began. It would have been better to follow the Israeli strategy of being an undeclared nuclear power or to have lined up alternative supplies and nuclear technology knowhow prior to the surreptitious entry into the nuclear club under the pretense of a peaceful explosion.
The current problem is that we do not have the expertise to build over1000MW nuclear power plants and are hamstrung by power shortages and poor infrastructure in an era of rising energy prices and decreasing future supplies. Furthermore our uranium ore supplies are limited and we have inadequate facilities for making highly enriched uranium for our domestic power and military strategy needs. We need an interim supply of HEU until we can transition to self-sufficiency by building fast breeder reactors operating with our plentiful Thorium.
America’s needs are to build up India as a counterweight in conventional forces and to some extent nuclear stalemate vis-a-vis China, without permitting a future rising economically powerful India to become a challenging nuclear power like Russia or China. Thus it wants to limit India’s fissile material stockpile and slow its ICBM and nuclear submarine capabilities by putting as many of India’s nuclear facilities as possible, under IAEA safeguards. There is another problem in that America does not want India to develop breeder reactors that produce more U233 than it uses from Plutonium and Thorium thus giving India self-sufficient independence in nuclear fuel. It is going to be very hard-nosed in its negotiations and will try to exploit India’s desperation. America also needs to use its nuclear expertise to sell India and even China and other countries expensive civilian nuclear energy plants to put a dent in its trade deficits. The starving nuclear industry in America and its lobbying clout are keen to push this agenda. America is mortally afraid of Pakistani nuclear assets falling into the hands of Islamic terrorists and it needs Pakistan and Afghanistan as bases to control Central Asian energy resources. It previously used the Shah’s Iran then subsequently Saudi Arabia and now uses Bahrain, Qatar and Iraq to control Persian Gulf energy resources. Reliable and reasonably priced energy is critical for America’s own economy and control over the energy resource of Japan and the EU essentially to keep them towing America’s line. This is why China is buying up energy companies the world over at high prices, while India and its oil minister talk to China about co-operation and are fooled as America is by China with regards to North Korea.
There are China, Iran And Pakistan, the three flies in the pact that could be a soothing ointment for India and America. China for its own geopolitical reasons has a no-lose all-win option in Pakistan. It can never be a threat to China as their only geographic contiguity is the impassable high mountains at the corners of Pakistan, Afghanistan, India and China. Pakistan is an economic midget but a giant irritant to India capable of fueling the Kashmir and Northeast insurgencies through its ISI and its surrogate Bangladesh. China thus diverts Indian resources to military spending and directs them to its northwestern border. Thus China has supplied Pakistan with missile and nuclear technology in contravention to the Missile Technology Control Regime and Nuclear Proliferation Treaty to which it is a signatory. China has done the same to Iran, Saudi Arabia and North Korea. It has played a smart game by supporting North Korea and fooling America that it needs China to bring North Korea to the bargaining table in six party talks. It has also sown up energy deals the world over and sided with America’s enemy Iran and tried to wean away South American countries from America which exploited them under the Monroe doctrine. It has become the second largest holder of American debt, the cheapest supplier of goods to America and its largest trade deficit partner. Thus Chinese leaders can threaten to nuke Los Angeles and tell America to put its own house in order, while India has to listen meekly to American preaching and dictates.
Iran is another of America’s obsession about the axis of evil. America forgets the coup it engineered against the elected Iranian government of Mossadeq in the nineteen-fifties. It then gave sanctuary to its puppet Shah that led to the barbarous hostage taking by Iran. America then instigated and armed Saddam and Iraq to start a war with Iran that led to a million Iranian casualties due to the foolish martyr policies of Khomeini. The economic disaster and the shooting down of an Iranian airliner by America led to a peace. Iran learnt it lessons when it couldn’t get American spare parts for its weapons and planes during the Iran-Iraq war. It shifted allegiance to Russia of the disintegrated Soviet Union and went on a massive arms buildup. The bombing of Serbia and the foolish invasion of Iraq is what made Iran and North Korea acquire nuclear weapons and to some extent even India declare itself a nuclear power. Multiethnic or threatened states have to advertise that attacking them will be costly and dangerous. That is why poisonous frogs and butterflies have evolved glaring, bright and loud color patterns as potential warnings to predators.
America has tried to isolate Iran. It chose to build an oil pipeline from Baku in Azerbaijan via Georgia to the Mediterranean Turkish port of Ceyhan rather than the simpler way via Iran to the Persian Gulf. It is also trying to prevent Central Asian pipelines to traverse through Russia and wants Turkmenistan to send a pipeline via Afghanistan and Pakistan. Thus it is opposed to the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline. It wants to hold India’s feet to the fire to vote against Iran at the IAEA and Security Council while dangling the carrot of the nuclear pact. Thus India’ relations with Iran are likely to be jeopardized. Pakistan has always been a power pawn for America. It started with CENTO. Pakistan used its weaponry meant to defend it against the Communist threat to attack India in 1965 and 1971.Then the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan led to arming Pakistan once again and ignoring its nuclear proliferation with China’s help. Now its terrorism, the Khan nuclear bazaar and clandestine cruise missile supply by China are ignored to use it as a stepping stone to Afghanistan and Central Asian energy resources to India’s detriment.
It is indeed in America’s interest to enlist India on its team. India is a democracy, a responsible nuclear power, has a large army not unwilling to tolerate casualties and a blue water navy capable of safeguarding the corridor from the Straits of Hormuz to the Straits of Malacca through which the world’s energy tankers traverse. India is a non-aggressive power and in dire need of improved infrastructure, reliable affordable energy, technology and capital which America and its allies the West can provide.
Life is not a fairy tale where the characters live happily ever after. Alienating Iran and collapse of the nuclear pact will push an energy deprived India into a strong alignment with Russia as it did in the past with the Soviet Union post-independence, when America foolishly refused to help in the construction of the Bhakra Nangal dam. Fortunately for America and unfortunately for India, China has no interest in forming the tripartite Russia, China, India axis suggested by a former Russian foreign minister and India’s large Muslim minority and a neighboring radicalized hostile Pakistan and the rising Islamic extremism in West Asia does not leave India with other credible strategic alliances. It is nevertheless imperative for India to plan for alternative scenarios and not become either a pawn or be uncontrollably buffeted without choice, like Brownian movements by the impact of larger and weightier forces. In spite of all this it is crucial for India to emphasize and pursue the benefits of the nuclear pact but on its own terms and be prepared to walk away from the deal if its long-term consequences outweigh the short-term benefits. America on the other hand, is addicted to instant gratification as the history of the long litany of its economic and foreign policies attest to. I am pessimistic because both countries have poor political parties more interested in internecine quarrels with name calling, corrupt elected representatives susceptible to disguised bribes, ideologues blind to reason and pragmatic national interests, and ignorant, apathetic and economically stressed populations.
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Citation: Gaurang Bhatt. "India America Nuclear Deal - A Strategic Analysis," India Defence.com, 16 January 2006.
Original URL: http://www.india-defence.com/reports/1187
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