Officials poised to begin effort
DOD ZEROS IN ON KEY THEMES, QUESTIONS TO FRAME SWEEPING QDR
As the Defense Department inches ever closer to launching its new Quadrennial Defense Review later this month, it is zeroing in on key themes and questions that will frame the broad study of Pentagon priorities, according to a senior defense official.
Because this year’s QDR will use Defense Secretary Robert Gates’ National Defense Strategy as a strategic point of departure, the first defining theme will be balance, the official said this week, noting DOD needs greater balance in current operations, in how DOD prepares for the future and in how the department invests to tackle irregular warfare and asymmetric threats. Gates has pushed for greater focus on such threats, as opposed to conventional warfare.
Another theme that will be highlighted in the QDR is risk, the official said, noting the department must determine where to buy down risk. DOD cannot aim to do everything equally well, the official added.
“Strategy is about making hard choices,” the official said. By being explicit about risk DOD can hopefully make better-informed decisions, the official said. Gates told reporters Tuesday that DOD should “take more risk” in conventional combat capability by eliminating redundant programs. (See related story.)
Over recent years the DOD program of record has not shifted much to reflect global changes, but U.S. forces could be pulled in two very different directions in the future, according to the official. One direction would involve preparation for irregular warfare against enemies using tactics such as improvised explosives and suicide bombings, the official said. Second, there will be high-end asymmetric threats that could jeopardize satellites, ships, aircraft and cyberspace systems, the official added.
In some cases there might be a blending of these, with sophisticated non-state actors acquiring high-end capabilities such as the sort of rockets used in Lebanon or weapons of mass destruction, according the official.
This QDR will make a “concerted effort” to capture lessons learned from wartime experience in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere, the official said, noting key questions are coming into focus.
These questions include how to further adapt the force for irregular warfare and institutionalize lessons learned; how to better deter and counter asymmetric, high-end threats; how to better clarify the requirements for homeland defense and support of interagency partners in stability operations; how to improve DOD’s ability to field critical enablers such as unmanned drones, helicopters and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets that are in high demand and low supply; and how to better manage cost and other issues, according to the official.
Pentagon leaders see the operational environment featuring three core areas: security concerns in the global commons, threats related to hybrid warfare and problems tied to the weakness of certain states around the world.
The threat of instability in the global commons poses a risk to the air, space, seas and cyberspace that tie together the international system, the official warned, arguing DOD must increasingly focus on maintaining access to these areas for the United States and allies.
Hybrid warfare -- a term advocated by Frank Hoffman, a research fellow at the Marine Corps Warfighting Laboratory, and embraced by Gates -- focuses on asymmetric attacks. In his recent Foreign Affairs essay, Gates cited Hoffman’s contention that such warfare merges “the lethality of state conflict with the fanatical and protracted fervor of irregular warfare.”
Some weak states such as Somalia and Yemen may allow for the growth of extremism while others such as Nigeria and Mexico might pose security challenges because they are of strategic interest to the United States, the official said.
Gates is setting high standards for the new QDR, which will begin later this month, run through the summer and inform fiscal year 2011 defense budget decisions. But the QDR should not be the be-all and end-all of defense planning, the official added. In some respects DOD will value the process as much as the product.
The United States must reconsider the fundamentals of its grand strategy, the official said, underscoring this will take time to develop. It took years for U.S. officials to develop a new strategy following World War II. While that approach emphasized containment, it also called for bolstering the international system, the official added, arguing the latter goal will be increasingly important for U.S. officials going forward.
The international system must be kept resilient in the face of “very profound” economic and security challenges, must accommodate and integrate the rise of new powers and must safeguard the global commons and trade, the official opined.
Five strategic principles should guide the way ahead, according to the official. First, the grand strategy must be pragmatic. The United States must also remain engaged in critical areas around the world to bolster the international system, open commerce and international norms, the official added. Third, the official said American engagement must be smarter, particularly with regard to use of the military. That means using more soft power, less hard power and tackling complex problems with all elements of national power, the official said, noting this will require improved interagency integration and better funding in soft power such as foreign aid for development. Fourth, America must play by the rules, leading by the power of example on the world stage, as Vice President Biden has emphasized, the official said. Fifth, the United States must recognize the importance of allies, revitalize these ties and help allies be more able to help themselves, the official added.
National debate and good ideas are needed, but the stakes are too high for partisanship, the official said. -- Christopher J. Castelli