April 29, 2009 -- The Pentagon today announced the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review will examine the national security implications of "powerful trends" that "will dramatically complicate the exercise of American statecraft," including the global economic crisis, climate change, cultural and demographic shifts and the increasing scarcity of resources like water and energy.
The announcement signals the Obama administration is effectively adopting a strategic framework for considering new security challenges the Pentagon began developing in June 2006, when Donald Rumsfeld was defense secretary, to better prepare for “shocks” to international order that are caused by non-military factors by scrutinizing global “trends” across a wide range of disciplines (DefenseAlert, Sept. 5, 2007).
On April 24, Defense Secretary Robert Gates signed a one-page memo approving a seven-page, classified terms of reference document for the QDR that calls for the Defense Department to examine an increasingly complex set of security challenges. The Pentagon today made public a two-page “fact sheet” summarizing the terms of reference.
Gates’ QDR guidance is considerably shorter than the 40-page classified terms of reference for the 2006 QDR that Rumsfeld issued. Gates' guidance does not include plans for a new defense strategy, sources say, leaving Pentagon officials to assume that the 2008 National Defense Strategy will be the strategic backdrop for the assessment.
In addition, Pentagon officials say Gates has not set forth guidance on risk management -- specifically how he wants the military services to consider where to cut investments to fund higher-priority needs.
The summary outlines the broad set of security challenges the 2010 QDR will consider as well as explaining the specific “areas of emphasis” for the assessment, many details of which have been previously reported by InsideDefense.com.
“The strategic environment we face is complex and the security challenges -- both current and those on the horizon -- are wide-ranging,” states the fact sheet. “The global economic downturn adds to the complexity.”
Among the security challenges the QDR will consider are violent extremist movements, the spread of weapons of mass destruction, rising powers with sophisticated weapons, failed or failing states and increasing encroachment on the globally common areas of air, sea, space and cyberspace.
“U.S. strategy must also increasingly account for a series of powerful trends that are reshaping the international landscape and will dramatically complicate the exercise of American statecraft and overseas relations,” according to the fact sheet.
While considering how everything from the economic crisis to climate change might require a U.S. military response, a paramount concern will remain the need for the Defense Department to “prevail in current conflicts while preparing for future contingencies,” states the summary.
In addition, the terms of reference codify plans to accomplish what Gates has repeatedly called for publicly: “Institutionalizing capabilities such as counterinsurgency and foreign military assistance and maintaining the United States' existing conventional and strategic technological edge against other military forces.”
Five issues teams are carrying out the work of the QDR. Issue Team 1 is examining how to ensure irregular warfare capabilities are expanded and adopted across the defense enterprise; Issue Team 2 is examining high-end asymmetric threats; Issue Team 3 is focusing on how to strengthen Defense Department support to civilian agencies in both domestic and overseas operations; Issue Team 4 is focusing on recalibrating U.S. military presence around the world; and Issue Team 5 is working on managing the Defense Department's “internal business processes to improve their efficiency and effectiveness,” according to the fact sheet.
In addition to the work taking place inside the Pentagon, the 2010 QDR will be informed by corollary reviews at the Department of Homeland Security, across the intelligence community, and by the National Security Council, according to the statement. -- Jason Sherman
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