Scenarios Selected for Quadrennial Defense Review; Team Leaders Named
April 14, 2009 -- The Defense Department has identified 11 scenarios, including regime collapse in North Korea, cyber attacks on the United States and a major conflict with China over Taiwan, to be assessed as part of the Quadrennial Defense Review, according to internal Pentagon documents that offer great detail on the review’s schedule and broad scope.
The documents show how Defense Secretary Robert Gates plans to tie the QDR process directly to the budget he has pledged to overhaul, noting the review will allow for further “divestment” decisions presaged in last week’s announcement of proposed weapon systems cuts and kills.
They also lay out in unprecedented detail the five issue teams that will do much of the work, as well as the kinds of real-world possibilities Pentagon planners will study as they lay the groundwork for those divestment decisions.
The previously unreported scenarios are outlined in an April 2009 Pentagon briefing reviewed by InsideDefense.com. Marked "for official use only," the briefing is also stamped for "discussion purposes only."
The scenarios, used to shape national security capabilities for the next 20 years, have been divided into four categories: U.S.-led stability and reconstruction operations; steady state demands; major conflicts against state adversaries; and, defense of the homeland and civil support.
Specifically, the Pentagon plans on examining operations in Iraq (post-2003) and Afghanistan, regime collapse in North Korea and a loss of control over nuclear weapons in Pakistan. These are lumped together as U.S.-led stability and reconstruction scenarios, according to the briefing.
Under steady state demands the briefing refers to SSSP, or steady state strategic planning, according to a Pentagon official. In this scenario, the Pentagon aims to capture daily activities by the combatant commanders that have not traditionally been accounted for in terms of planning and programming, the official said.
A source outside the Pentagon, who is following the QDR closely, added that steady state strategic planning addresses the operations of combatant commanders who conduct several short-term missions on a routine basis that require a persistent level of effort.
Concerning major conflicts against state adversaries, the QDR will examine relations between China and Taiwan, Russia and its “coercion of Baltic states,” and an Iran armed with nuclear weapons.
Finally, the QDR will study homeland defense and protection, consequence management (actions taken in the aftermath of a disaster) and cyber attacks.
Because Gates has already made a number of programmatic proposals, which were announced last week, this QDR will focus on a specific set of problem areas rather than a full soup-to-nuts review, the source outside the Pentagon said.
While Gates has not yet signed the QDR’s terms of reference -- the formal guidance for the review’s goals -- his office has selected leaders to oversee the five issue teams that will guide substantive reviews of military capabilities.
In addition to the areas of irregular warfare, defeating high-end asymmetric threats, civil support at home and abroad, and global posture, there will be a fifth team to study the business processes and cost drivers behind defense programs, as Inside the Pentagon reported last month.
The five issue teams will report to the QDR analysis and integration cell, led by Dave Ochmanek, deputy assistant secretary of defense for force development in the Pentagon's policy shop, according to the documents. In 2007, during his stint at the Rand Corp., Ochmanek co-authored an influential report, "A New Division of Labor: Meeting America's Security Challenges Beyond Iraq," in which he called for a realignment of strategy, weapon systems investments and composition of the military services, InsideDefense.com reported last month.
Ochmanek will be joined by Eric Coulter, deputy director of strategic assessments and irregular warfare within the program analysis and evaluation (PA&E) directorate. Serving as Joint Staff contacts are Lisa Disbrow, deputy director for force management at the Joint Staff, and Rear Adm. Philip Davidson, deputy director for strategy and policy from the Joint Staff's J-5 directorate.
Each issue team is assigned an executive secretary and one representative from policy, PA&E and the Joint Staffs:
* For irregular warfare capabilities, Garry Reid, now principal director of special operations capabilities and counterterrorism, will head policy. Reid is being promoted to become deputy assistant secretary of defense for special operations, Inside the Pentagon reported earlier this month. Joining him on the team are Timothy Bright, director of PA&E's irregular warfare division; and Maj. Gen. William Troy, vice director for force structure, resources and assessments at the Joint Staff's J-8 directorate.
* Amanda Dory, deputy assistant secretary for strategy, leads policy for the high-end threats group; Matthew Schaffer, deputy director of conventional forces at PA&E, joins her; and Brig. Gen. Lori Robinson, deputy director for force application at the Joint Staff's J-8 directorate, serves as the Joint Staff representative.
* For the civil support team, Christine Wormuth, most recently a senior fellow in the international security program at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, and soon to be the principal deputy assistant secretary of homeland defense, is in charge of policy; joining her is Dennis Evans, director of the strategic defensive and space programs division at PA&E, and Scott Norwood, deputy director for global security affairs at the Joint Staff's J-5 directorate.
* Heading the global posture group is Janine Davidson, a former Air Force pilot and current deputy under secretary of defense in charge of planning; joined by Krysty Kolesar, director of PA&E's force and infrastructure cost analysis division; Lisa Disbrow and Rear Adm. Davidson will represent the Joint Staff.
* The fifth issue team -- looking at cost drivers -- includes Pentagon Deputy Comptroller Kevin Scheid to head policy, Jerry Pannullo, director of the economic and manpower analysis division at PA&E, and Brig. Gen. Glenn Walters, deputy director for resources and acquisition at the Joint Staff's J-8 directorate.
The services have been asked to provide only one subject matter expert for each issue area team and the analysis and integration team.
Serving as the lead at the executive secretariat level is Jennifer Zakriski, director of force development within the office of the under secretary of defense for policy, according to the documents. In this role, she serves as the QDR chief of staff.
As reported by Inside the Pentagon on March 26, the policy review that will take place between April and June will be directly tied to the budget and execution review that will occur this fall. During that period of assessment, the department will “review program change proposals and budget change proposals,” as well as “refine decisions and divestment across [the] defense program,” according to the documents.
The review's governance structure has the Defense Senior Leaders Conference (DSLC) -- a group that includes the nine combatant commanders, the service chiefs and civilian Pentagon leaders -- at the top.
Below the DSLC is the Deputy's Advisory Working Group, which is made up of the service secretaries, the vice chiefs and various under secretaries of defense; combatant commanders and others are also invited. Reporting to the DAWG are the QDR stakeholders, according to the documents. They include service, OSD and combatant commander three-star representatives.
The next QDR stakeholders' meeting is scheduled for April 16, when they will issue work plans.
A two-day-long war game on high-end threat scenarios is planned for April 23 and 24, according to the calendar included in the briefing.
Additionally, a QDR web site has been established on the Pentagon's secure Intranet, states the briefing. The site hosts calendars, read-aheads for stakeholder meetings, contact information and briefing documents. -- Kate Brannen
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