June 17, 2009 -- Defense Secretary Robert Gates is considering options to reshape the military that could squeeze up to $75 billion from current budget plans to pay for new capabilities and units designed to deal with high-end asymmetric threats and irregular operations, according to Pentagon officials.
Three previously unreported proposals -- prepared by David Ochmanek, deputy assistant secretary of defense for force development, and presented to Gates during a June 5 meeting on the Quadrennial Defense Review -- set forth low-, medium- and high-cost options for buying new capabilities and units over the next five years, these officials say.
In approximate terms, the low-cost option would cost $25 billion, the medium-cost option $50 billion and the high-cost option $75 billion, according to military officials.
“That amount of money, even for the smallest option, is not available,” said a Pentagon official. That has led many Defense Department officials to conclude that any major changes to “reshape” the military services, in Gates’ oft-used term, will be paid for out of hide.
The proposals for new capabilities are being drawn up as the services and the office of program analysis and evaluation are wrapping up a series of studies commissioned by the Office of the Secretary of Defense. These include an examination of the military’s current mix of ground forces, an amphibious warfare study and a review of tactical aircraft plans (DefenseAlert, May 27).
Officials say the objective of the proposals drawn up by Ochmanek for “rebalancing” the force appear to be aimed -- at this juncture -- at stimulating debate rather than winning support for an immediate decision.
“I don't think the intent is to choose option one, option two, or option three,” said a Pentagon official. “I think the intent is to expose ideas.”
The White House Office of Management and Budget last week signaled that the fiscal year 2011 budget will be tight, directing most federal agencies to prepare alternative budgets that freeze spending at FY-10 levels as well as a version that imposes a 5 percent cut. The Pentagon, which in May received its FY-11 fiscal guidance, is exempt from the recent OMB directive (DefenseAlert, June 16).
Gates last month said that simply supporting the current modernization plan will require annual increases of 2 percent real growth -- after accounting for inflation -- over the next few years, more than the White House forecast in the outyears for the Defense Department in its FY-10 budget proposal last month.
“This is not just a cut drill,” said a defense analyst tracking the QDR. The analyst added that funding would have to be harvested from existing programs and force structure to finance the new capabilities that Gates and the Obama administration say are necessary to deal with future challenges.
These challenges include anti-access strategies and capabilities that China is developing. Also carrying hefty price tags are efforts to improve the U.S. ability to eliminate weapons of mass destruction and to bolster special operations forces and general-purpose forces for irregular warfare.
In January, Gates told Congress he intends for the QDR to have a “dramatic impact” on the Pentagon's fiscal year 2011 budget request (DefenseAlert, Jan. 27).
In April, Gates handed down a revised fiscal year 2010 request he called a “reform” budget. It encompassed changes to more than 50 programs, including program terminations, restructurings and efforts to improve military support for wars in Iraq and Afghanistan (DefenseAlert, April 6).
Last month, the Pentagon's No. 3 official said Gates aims to use the QDR to continue “reshaping” the military services.
“This QDR is going to continue the process of rebalancing that Secretary Gates has really begun in the FY-10 budget,” Michèle Flournoy, under secretary of defense for policy, told reporters on May 20. -- Jason Sherman
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