17 July 2009

Congressional Report Predicts Steady Decline in War Costs, Troop Levels Through 2012

July 16, 2009 -- The Obama administration's $130 billion war cost funding request for fiscal year 2010 is 10 percent higher than what the Defense Department will need to conduct wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, according to a new legislative-branch assessment.

The Congressional Research Service, in a July 2 report that examines U.S. troop level deployments, projects that war costs in FY-10 will be $117 billion -- $13 billion lower than the Defense Department's request -- and that the price tag for the two missions will decline to $92 billion in FY-11 and $70 billion in FY-12.

In addition, the report -- “Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012: Cost and Other Potential Issues,” written by defense budget expert Amy Belasco -- estimates that the Defense Department will require a total of $133 billion in FY-09, $8 billion less than the $141 billion appropriated for the two wars.

Belasco writes that she calculated these costs by examining a wide range of Defense Department reports. A goal of the report, she writes, is to estimate troop strength through FY-12 and assist lawmakers in assessing Pentagon war funding requests.

“While it is not clear whether war costs will change precisely in tandem with troop levels, these changes can provide a benchmark to assess requests,” the report states.

The Obama administration earlier this year announced plans to increase troop levels in Afghanistan while drawing down forces from Iraq, adding 30,000 U.S. soldiers and Marines to Central Asia while gradually reducing force levels in Iraq to between 35,000 and 50,000 by the summer of 2011.

“CRS estimates that average troop strength in Iraq will decline to 135,600 in FY-09, 88,300 in FY-10, 42,800 in FY-11 and 4,100 in FY-11,” states the report.

In Afghanistan, the report predicts the average monthly troop level will climb to 50,700 in FY-09 and rise in FY-10 to 63,500 once all units that are part of the current force increase are in place.

By FY-12, when the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq is supposed to be complete, the number of troops supporting these missions is expected to be 67,500, according to the report.

Meantime, Rep. John Murtha (D-PA), chairman of the House Appropriations defense subcommittee, today told reporters that he expects the current high pace of operations in Afghanistan will drive up war costs in FY-10 and could force the Obama administration to seek a supplemental appropriations bill in the spring (DefenseAlert, July 16). -- Jason Sherman