As the Navy mulls what to do about a projected strike fighter shortfall that has ballooned to 243 aircraft in the next decade, a top-ranking defense official has hinted at force-structure changes that may come out of the upcoming Quadrennial Defense Review that could have major implications on the size of that gap.
Marine Corps Gen. James Cartwright, vice-chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, told the Senate Armed Services Committee during his July 9 re-appointment hearing that Defense Department officials are laying out a strategy in the QDR that is “a departure from the two-major-theater-war construct that we have adhered to in the past,” and one that would focus more on irregular warfare.
His comments indicate that the Pentagon may be re-examining the value of carriers and carrier air wings as part of its shift in force structure, Ron O’Rourke, an analyst at the Congressional Research Service, said during a July 21 discussion on the strike fighter gap at the Center for National Policy in Washington.
The Navy is facing a strike fighter shortfall of between 125 and 243 aircraft -- and possibly more -- as early as 2015 when aging F/A-18A-D Hornets start retiring and the follow-on F-35 Joint Strike Fighter joins the fleet.
During hearings this year, lawmakers have voiced their frustrations to Navy officials about what they perceive as a lack of answers on what to do about the strike fighter gap. The Navy has countered that it is reviewing the issue in the QDR.
The Navy has three possible ways of dealing with the problem: extend the service lives of legacy Hornets; ramp up production of the JSF and ensure that it stays on time; or buy more F/A-18E/F Super Hornets.
But Cartwright’s comments indicate that the Pentagon may take a second look at just how many strike fighters would be needed overall, O’Rourke said.
“We’re moving to a new strategy that looks at these other kinds of conflicts and one major regional peer competitor rather than two overlapping major regional conflicts,” he said. “Then the question that would flow out of that is what value carrier air wings have in helping to fulfill that strategy and those kinds of warfighting concerns.”
Cartwright, responding to questioning from Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) about why the Pentagon had opted to end production of Air Force F-22 Raptors at 187 aircraft, attributed the decision to a “military requirement . . . associated with the strategy that we are laying out in the QDR.”
“The strategy that we are moving toward is one that is acknowledging the fact that we are not in that type of conflict [two major theater wars],” the general said. “We believe that the sizing construct . . . demands that we have fifth-generation fighters across all three services rather than just one, and that the number of those fighters probably does not need to be sufficient to take on two simultaneous peer competitors.”
O’Rourke noted that carriers and their air wings have value beyond conflicts.
“I think it’s important to remember that forward-deployed naval forces including carriers and carrier air wings are important even in the absence of war in terms of shaping the political environment,” he said.
Congress pushes for action
The Pentagon intends to weigh all issues relating to the strike fighter gap in the QDR, but many in Congress have expressed an unwillingness to wait.
In the fiscal year 2009 president’s budget request, DOD laid out its intentions to buy 18 Super Hornets in FY-10, but then ultimately cut that buy to just nine aircraft when the FY-10 budget request was released earlier this year.
The Senate Armed Services Committee recommended replacing the nine aircraft that were removed in its mark of the FY-10 defense authorization bill last month. House authorizers did not add more aircraft, but approved a future multiyear buy of Super Hornets. The House Appropriations defense subcommittee recommended buying 18 Super Hornets in the FY-10 defense appropriations bill, a mark that was approved by the full committee last week.
Lawmakers have urged the Navy to buy more Super Hornets, citing concerns over the ability of the JSF to stay on time and noting that it would be expensive to extend the service lives of legacy Hornets from 8,600 to 10,000 hours.
There are estimates as high as $26 million for extending the service life of a Hornet that far, O’Rourke said.
“Any scope of work you define will then be variable from one aircraft to the next, but as a general matter, there is at least a number that seems to be the current high-end quoted figure,” he said.
Due to concerns about the F-35’s ability to stay on time and the high cost of doing a service life extension, buying more Super Hornets makes more sense, according to Robert Dunn, president of the Association of Naval Aviation, who also spoke at the CNP event.
“You’re getting a new aircraft at a cost of 20 percent less per flight hour than what you would have if you continued with [legacy Hornets],” he said. “You would also have an aircraft with all of the latest bells and whistles.”
A number of lawmakers agree with Dunn’s view. Rep. Gene Taylor (D-MS), chairman of the House Armed Services seapower and expeditionary forces subcommittee, said in June that “it makes absolutely no sense to any of us that we should pay $26 million to extend the flying life of an older plane by just 1,500 hours when, for $50 million, they could buy a brand-new, more-capable plane that will be good for 8,000 hours.”
Service life extension program
Meanwhile, the F/A-18 program is continuing to work on the service life extension program (SLEP) in an attempt to find some aircraft that can be affordably extended to 10,000 hours and help keep the gap from growing larger.
While the SLEP program will not fix the problem, it is an essential part of the solution, said Bob Gower, Boeing’s vice-president for the F/A-18 and EA-18G Growler.
“This is a multifaceted problem and you aren’t going to fix it with any one solution,” he told Inside the Navy July 15. “You’re not going to fix this problem just by buying F/A-18s or by keeping JSF on track. You also have to go ahead and make sure funding is in place for the SLEP program to extend the current Hornets, so all those pieces have to come together.”
Gower said a “worst-case scenario” would involve the JSF being delayed and the SLEP only bringing Hornets to 8,600 hours. If that happens, the 243-aircraft figure “could actually grow,” he said.
The program is looking at up to 300 of the 600-plus legacy Hornets that could be extended to 10,000 hours, Gower noted. About half of those 300 could be characterized as the “best of the fleet” that have the best chance of reaching the 10,000-hour mark, he said. Beyond that, it becomes more difficult to extend service lives.
“There’s a decision point that says, ‘OK, to get from 150 to 300 airplanes, you’re not just taking the pristine classics, you’re having to go into some that have had more issues that they have to go address,’” Gower said.
The F/A-18 program has wrapped up phases one and two of the service life assessment program (SLAP) that will determine what needs to be done to the aircraft during the SLEP, Capt. Mark Darrah, the Navy’s F/A-18 and EA-18G program manager, said in a July 17 e-mail response to questions from ITN.
“At the time, the program is in the process of refining the plan and prioritizing all SLEP efforts,” Darrah said.
The SLEP is divided into three phases:
Phase A, which was completed last November, involved providing preliminary cost estimates and performing analysis of safety of flight;
Phase B, which will involve categorizing and prioritizing critical aircraft structure and developing structural analysis tools, began in December and will be completed in spring of 2010; and
Phase C, which will define and certify all required structural modifications, is scheduled to begin with engineering work in spring 2010, with SLEP modifications taking place in the 2012-2018 time frame, according to Darrah.
SLEP estimates are expected to reach “Phase B maturity” by later this summer, with further refinements over the next 12-18 months that will bring better definition to the cost estimate, the captain said. -- Dan Taylor
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