July 2, 2009 -- The Quadrennial Defense Review must jettison a bedrock assumption of every post-Cold War national security strategy -- that the U.S. military will enjoy uncontested access to global commons of sea, air, space and cyberspace – a move with "profound consequences" for defense planning, the Pentagon's No. 3 official argues in a new essay.
Michèle Flournoy, the under secretary of defense for policy and a key official guiding the QDR, and Shawn Brimley, a special assistant to Flournoy, write in the July issue of the U.S. Naval Institute's Proceedings magazine about one of the high-stakes issues being examined in the review -- how to better prepare for high-end, asymmetric threats.
Defense Secretary Robert Gates has repeatedly argued that he wants to reshape the U.S. military for a wider set of national security challenges, including the ability to deal with hybrid challenges from adversaries who employ traditional and irregular forms of conflict as well as high-end, asymmetric threats. In addition to these, Flournoy and Brimley add the challenge of dealing with weak and failing states.
“We are likely entering an era in which a series of strategic trends will make it more difficult for the United States to sustain stability within the global commons,” they write.
Wile the authors argue that U.S. dominance in space and the preeminence of the Navy on the high seas is not eroding “at a precipitous pace,” they point to trends that are “harbingers of a future strategic environment in which America's role as an arbiter or guarantor of stability within the global commons will become increasingly complicated and contested.”
These trends include the spread of technology and know-how necessary for nations, as well as sub-national groups, to deploy anti-access capabilities as well as high-end asymmetric technologies that could challenge U.S. military might.
“To assume away or leave these trends unaddressed as we formulate a new U.S. national security strategy and complete a Quadrennial Defense Review would be unwise, increasing the possibility of a future strategic surprise for which we would be unprepared,” they write.
Flournoy and Brimley say the Pentagon must begin preparing for the day when other nations and non-state actors are able -- even in the face of U.S. military challenges -- to effectively pursue their own interests in the global commons.
The consequences of a shift to an international security environment where the global commons are beyond the control of the U.S. military “are likely to be profound, posing challenges to U.S. security strategy and defense planning,” the Pentagon officials argue. “To address such challenges, we need to think hard about their operational and resource implications, particularly as QDR deliberations evolve.”
Gates has directed the QDR to examine scenarios that stress U.S. military forces in unconventional ways, including examining how high-end asymmetric attacks against U.S. satellites, information networks and high-speed cruise missiles might impact effectiveness.
“Adequately preparing for these challenges may be more about identifying where new operational concepts and discrete investments are needed than in focusing on major shifts in force structure,” they write.
Last month, Flournoy's staff, working on the QDR, drafted a range of new investment options -- from $25 billion to $75 billion over the next five years -- to improve U.S. military capabilities against high-end asymmetric threats, hybrid warfare and weak and failing states (DefenseAlert, June 17).
Any new investments are expected to be financed largely through cuts made to programs in the services’ fiscal year 2011 to 2015 spending plans, now being drafted.
While all three of the challenge areas being examined in the QDR impact each of the services, high-end asymmetric threats present the greatest operational problems to naval and air forces.
“From a naval perspective, it is clear that several issues need to be addressed, including the future of amphibious landing capabilities, the role of naval unmanned combat aerial vehicles, and the overall mix between ships designed for littoral environments and blue-water surface combatants,” Flournoy and Brimley write.
“Similar dynamics should influence the debate over how the Air Force pursues more capable unmanned aerial systems and the next-generation bomber,” they add. -- Jason Sherman
722009_july2a